IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20121491.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified

Author

Listed:
  • Saborowski, Christian
  • Haddad, Mona
  • Lim, Jamus Jerome
  • Pancaro, Cosimo

Abstract

This paper addresses the mechanisms by which trade openness affects growth volatility. Using a diverse set of export concentration measures, we present strong evidence pointing to an important role for export diversification in conditioning the effect of trade openness on growth volatility. Indeed, the effect of openness on volatility is shown to be negative for a significant proportion of countries with relatively diversified export baskets. JEL Classification: F15, F43, O24

Suggested Citation

  • Saborowski, Christian & Haddad, Mona & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2012. "Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified," Working Paper Series 1491, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121491
    Note: 1934813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1491.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Ranciere, Romain & Tornell, Aaron & Westermann, Frank, 2006. "Decomposing the effects of financial liberalization: Crises vs. growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3331-3348, December.
    4. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    5. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
    6. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
    7. Maurice J. G. Bun & Frank Windmeijer, 2010. "The weak instrument problem of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(1), pages 95-126, February.
    8. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2008. "Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: a Reassessment," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 105-152, September.
    9. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
    11. Bejan, Maria, 2006. "Trade Openness and Output Volatility," MPRA Paper 2759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    13. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2009. "Aid and Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2009-05, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    15. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
    16. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, and Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 59-64, May.
    17. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2008. "Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: a Reassessment," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 105-152, September.
    18. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2008. "Systemic Crises and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 359-406.
    19. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    20. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 81-94, March.
    21. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    22. Jansen, Marion, 2004. "Income volatility in small and developing economies: export concentration matters," WTO Discussion Papers 3, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    23. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 2006/172, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    25. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Dongyeol & Zhang, Huan, 2022. "Export diversification in low-income countries and small states: Do country size and income level matter?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 250-265.
    2. Kangni Kpodar & Patrick Imam, 2016. "Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Worsen Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 949-979, November.
    3. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    4. Balavac, Merima & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "The link between trade openness, export diversification, institutions and output volatility in transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 273-287.
    5. Mr. Kangni R Kpodar & Patrick A. Imam, 2015. "Does A Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2015/177, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Cavallo, Alberto F. & Cavallo, Eduardo A., 2010. "Are crises good for long-term growth? The role of political institutions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-857, September.
    7. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Carolyn Chisadza & Matthew Clance, 2022. "The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and output volatility: High vs. low income countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 566-580, May.
    9. César Calderón and Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2007. "Zooming in: From Aggregate Volatility to Income Distribution," Business School Working Papers 2007-03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    10. Thi Nguyet Anh Nguyen & Thi Hong Hanh Pham & Thomas Vallée, 2020. "Trade Volatility in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus Three: Impacts and Determinants," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(2), pages 167-200, September.
    11. Alia, Didier Yelognisse & Anago, Romuald E. Kouadio, 2014. "Foreign aid effectiveness in African economies: Evidence from a panel threshold framework," WIDER Working Paper Series 015, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2005. "Does openness imply greater exposure ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3733, The World Bank.
    13. Didier Yelognisse Alia & Romuald E. Kouadio Anago, 2014. "Foreign Aid Effectiveness in African Economies: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-015, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Baris Kablamaci, 2019. "Does economic openness affect liberal and electoral democracy in a different way? Empirical evidence from developing countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(3), pages 404-433, July.
    15. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
    16. EDWARDS, Jeffrey, 2009. "Trading Partner Volatility And The Ability For A Country To Cope: A Panel Gmm Model, 1970-2005," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    17. Isaac Doku, 2022. "Are Developing Countries Using Climate Funds for Poverty Alleviation? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(6), pages 3026-3049, December.
    18. Vieira, Flávio & MacDonald, Ronald & Damasceno, Aderbal, 2012. "The role of institutions in cross-section income and panel data growth models: A deeper investigation on the weakness and proliferation of instruments," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 127-140.
    19. Blessing Chiripanhura & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2015. "Aid, Political Business Cycles and Growth in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 1387-1421, November.
    20. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    export diversification; growth volatility; trade openness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121491. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.