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Exchange market pressures during the financial crisis: A Bayesian model averaging evidence

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  • Feldkircher, Martin
  • Horvath, Roman
  • Rusnak, Marek

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether pre-crisis leading indicators help explain pressures on the exchange rate (and its volatility) during the global financial crisis. We use a unique data set that covers 149 countries and 58 indicators, and estimation techniques that are robust to model uncertainty. Our results are threefold: First and foremost, we find that price stability plays a pivotal role as a determinant of exchange rate pressures. More specifically, the currencies of countries that experienced higher inflation prior to the crisis tend to be more affected in times of stress. Second, we investigate potential effects that vary with the level of pre-crisis inflation. In this vein, our results reveal that an increase in domestic savings reduces the severity of pressures in countries that experienced a low-inflation environment prior to the crisis. Finally, we find evidence of the mitigating effects of international reserves on the volatility of exchange rate pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Feldkircher, Martin & Horvath, Roman & Rusnak, Marek, 2014. "Exchange market pressures during the financial crisis: A Bayesian model averaging evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:21-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.021
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    Cited by:

    1. Rockey, James & Temple, Jonathan, 2016. "Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-102.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Binici, Mahir, 2016. "Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 65-87.
    3. Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i04).
    4. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    5. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek.
    6. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak.
    7. Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 81568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Robert Dixon & Zhichao Zhang & Yang Dai, 2016. "Exchange Rate Flexibility in China: Measurement, Regime Shifts and Driving Forces of Change," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 875-892, November.
    9. Martin Feldkircher & Thomas Gruber & Isabella Moder, 2014. "Using a Threshold Approach to Flag Vulnerabilities in CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-30.
    10. Horvath, Roman & Horvatova, Eva & Siranova, Maria, 2017. "Financial development, rule of law and wealth inequality : Bayesian model averaging evidence," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Frantisek Brazdik & Jan Bruha & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Zuzana Humplova & Frantisek Kopriva & Jiri Polansky & Marek Rusnak & Jaromir Tonner, 2015. "Forecasting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 13, number rb13/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak.
    12. Michal Andrle & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jaromir Baxa & Jan Bruha & Peter Claeys & Jan Filacek & Jakub Mateju & Miroslav Plasil & Serhat Solmaz & Borek Vasicek, 2015. "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Low-Inflation Environment," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 13, number rb13/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta.
    13. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky & Jaromir Tonner & Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Lubomir Lizal & Diana Zigraiova, 2016. "Topics in Labour Markets," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 14, number rb14/1 edited by Jan Babecky.
    14. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2017. "The Impact of Institutional Quality on Bank Lending Activity: Evidence from Bayesian Model Averaging," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(5), pages 372-395, October.
    15. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Volha Audzei & Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2016. "Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 14, number rb14/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek.
    16. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange market pressures; Financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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