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The Impact of Data Revisions on the Robustness of Growth Determinants - A Note on 'Determinants of Economic Growth. Will Data Tell?'


  • Feldkircher, Martin

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Zeugner, Stefan

    () (Université Libre de Bruxelles)


Ciccone and Jarocinski (2010) show that inference in Bayesian model averaging (BMA) can be highly sensitive to small changes in the dependent variable. In particular they demonstrate that the importance of growth determinants in explaining growth varies tremendously over different revisions of Penn World Table (PWT) income data. They conclude that ’agnostic’ priors appear too sensible for this strand of growth empirics. In response, we show that the instability found owes much to a specific BMA set-up: the variation in results can be considerably reduced by applying an evenly ’agnostic’, but flexible prior.

Suggested Citation

  • Feldkircher, Martin & Zeugner, Stefan, 2010. "The Impact of Data Revisions on the Robustness of Growth Determinants - A Note on 'Determinants of Economic Growth. Will Data Tell?'," Working Papers in Economics 2010-12, University of Salzburg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:sbgwpe:2010_012

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2011. "How different is Africa? A comment on Masanjala and Papageorgiou," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 1041-1047, September.
    2. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rockey, James & Temple, Jonathan, 2016. "Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-102.
    2. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2012. "Mixtures of g-priors for Bayesian model averaging with economic applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 251-266.
    3. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Vlach, Tomas, 2016. "Publication Bias in Measuring the Income Elasticity of Water Demand," MPRA Paper 75247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dollar, David & Kleineberg, Tatjana & Kraay, Aart, 2016. "Growth still is good for the poor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 68-85.
    5. Feldkircher, Martin & Horvath, Roman & Rusnak, Marek, 2014. "Exchange market pressures during the financial crisis: A Bayesian model averaging evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-41.
    6. Jetter, Michael & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2015. "Trade openness and bigger governments: The role of country size revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-63.
    7. Kaffine, Daniel T. & Davis, Graham A., 2017. "A multi-row deletion diagnostic for influential observations in small-sample regressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 133-145.
    8. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
    9. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”," Working Papers IES 2016/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2016.
    10. Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 81568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Michael Jetter & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2016. "Uncovering the determinants of corruption," Working Papers 2016-02, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    12. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2012:i:2:b:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Aart Kraay & Norikazu Tawara, 2013. "Can specific policy indicators identify reform priorities?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 253-283, September.
    14. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Tomas Vlach, 2017. "Measuring the Income Elasticity of Water Demand: The Importance of Publication and Endogeneity Biases," Working Papers IES 2017/02, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2017.
    15. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2012. "Drivers of Output Loss during the 2008–09 Crisis: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 46-64.

    More about this item


    Bayesian model averaging; Growth determinants; Zellner’s g prior; Model uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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