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International Reserves and the Global Financial Crisis

  • Kathryn M.E. Dominguez
  • Yuko Hashimoto
  • Takatoshi Ito

This study examines whether pre-crisis international reserve accumulations, as well as exchange rate and reserve policy decisions made during the global financial crisis, can help to explain cross-country differences in post-crisis economic performance. Our approach focuses not only on the total stock of official reserves held by countries, but also on the decisions by governments to purchase or sell reserve assets during the crisis period. We introduce new data made available through the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) Reserve Template, which allow us to distinguish interest income and valuation changes in the stock of official reserves from the actively managed component of reserves. We use this novel data to gauge how (and whether) reserve accumulation policies influenced the economic and financial performance of countries during and after the global crisis. Our findings support the view that higher reserve accumulations prior to the crisis are associated with higher post-crisis GDP growth.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17362.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17362.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Publication status: forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17362
Note: IFM
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  1. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Park, Donghyun, 2010. "International reserves and swap lines: substitutes or complements?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt04v2q5s7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  2. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2010. "International Reserves and Underdeveloped Capital Markets," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 193 - 221.
  3. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
  4. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent R., 2011. "Entrada de capitales y acumulación de reservas: evidencia reciente," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 20, pages 15-25.
  6. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
  7. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
  10. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
  11. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Donald B. Adams & Dale W. Henderson, 1983. "Definition and measurement of exchange market intervention," Staff Studies 126, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154.
  14. Aizenman, Joshua & Sun, Yi, 2012. "The financial crisis and sizable international reserves depletion: From ‘fear of floating’ to the ‘fear of losing international reserves’?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 250-269.
  15. Linda S. Goldberg & Craig Kennedy & Jason Miu, 2011. "Central bank dollar swap lines and overseas dollar funding costs," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 3-20.
  16. Takatoshi Ito, 2005. "Interventions and Japanese economic recovery," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 219-239, November.
  17. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
  18. Didier, Tatiana & Hevia, Constantino & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2011. "How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies to the global financial crisis ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5637, The World Bank.
  19. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," NBER Working Papers 14826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Aizenman, Joshua & LEE, JAEWOO, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44g3n2j8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  21. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Rasmus Fatum & Pavel Vacek, 2010. "Does Foreign Exchange Reserve Decumulation Lead to Currency Appreciation?," NBER Working Papers 16044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Michael J. Fleming & Nicholas J. Klagge, 2010. "The Federal Reserve's foreign exchange swap lines," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Apr).
  23. Lucrezia Reichlin & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number reic09-1, May.
  24. Steven Kates (ed.), 2011. "The Global Financial Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar, number 14454.
  25. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Edwin M. Truman & Anna Wong, 2006. "The Case for an International Reserve Diversification Standard," Working Paper Series WP06-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  27. Ferhan Salman & Mali Chivakul & Ricardo Llaudes, 2010. "The Impact of the Great Recessionon Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/237, International Monetary Fund.
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