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Interventions and Japanese Economic Recovery

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  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

This paper attempts to explain possible reasons and objectives behind the 35 trillion yen (7% of GDP) interventions conducted by the Japanese monetary authorities from January 2003 to March 2004, and to discuss whether the interventions achieved the presumed objectives: making the movement of the yen flexible but orderly, and helping economic recovery. The motivation of starting intervention in January 2003 was to keep the yen from appreciating in the midst of financial and macroeconomic weakness. The economy started to show some strength in the second half of 2003, but interventions continued, with a brief pause in September. Reasons for interventions after September are two-fold. First, the interventions provided opportunities for unsterilized interventions. Second, the monetary authorities were extremely sensitive to speculative activities in the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Takatoshi Ito, 2005. "Interventions and Japanese Economic Recovery," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-100, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hst:hstdps:d05-100
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    File URL: http://hi-stat.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2005/pdf/D05-100.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15, pages 131-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
    3. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154.
    2. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & McCauley, Robert N. & Ueda, Kazuo, 2016. "Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese lessons," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Rasmus Fatum, 2010. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 57, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2010. "Evaluating foreign exchange market intervention: Self-selection, counterfactuals and average treatment effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 570-584, April.
    5. Fatum, Rasmus, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: Does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-199.
    6. Paul Welfens, 2010. "Transatlantic banking crisis: analysis, rating, policy issues," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 3-48, May.
    7. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2008. "Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements," NBER Chapters,in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17), pages 177-217 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:370-390 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Stefan Reitz & Mark Taylor, 2012. "FX intervention in the Yen-US dollar market: a coordination channel perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-128, June.
    10. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    11. Ronald McDonald & Xuxin Mao, 2016. "Japan's Currency Intervention Regimes: A Microstructural Analysis with Speculation and Sentiment," Working Papers 2016_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Chen, Ho-Chyuan & Chang, Kuang-Liang & Yu, Shih-Ti, 2012. "Application of the Tobit model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity for foreign exchange market interventions," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 274-282.
    13. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.
    14. Ruelke, Jan C. & Frenkel, Michael R. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2010. "Expectations on the yen/dollar exchange rate - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 355-368, September.
    15. Val Lambson & Shinji Takagi & Issei Kozuru, 2014. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy: A Tale of Two Agencies with Conflicting Objectives," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 976-991, November.
    16. Shinji Takagi & Kenichi Hirose & Issei Kozuru, 2012. "The Political Economy Of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 12-04, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intervention of foreign exchange market; the yen; monetary policy; Japanese economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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