IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/japwor/v24y2012i4p274-282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of the Tobit model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity for foreign exchange market interventions

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Ho-Chyuan
  • Chang, Kuang-Liang
  • Yu, Shih-Ti

Abstract

In this empirical study, we apply the Tobit-GARCH model to investigate the intervention function of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the JPY/USD exchange market. The proposed model has the advantage of handling intervention data with both a majority of zero observations and conditional heteroscedasticity. Thus, the model provides better estimates of the intervention function than such conventional models as the standard Tobit, OLS, Probit, and traditional GARCH models. Results show that the intervention behavior of the BoJ is affected more by its half-year long-term target than its previous-day short-term target, and the BoJ generally follows the policy of “leaning against the wind”. The US-JP interest rate spread was never a trigger of BoJ's interventions during the sample period. The BoJ did not respond to the domestic stock index by the sales-intervention of the JPY, even when the economy was sluggish during the lost decade (1992–2004). However, its intervention behavior was significantly affected by U.S. interventions and was significantly persistent across some of the periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Ho-Chyuan & Chang, Kuang-Liang & Yu, Shih-Ti, 2012. "Application of the Tobit model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity for foreign exchange market interventions," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 274-282.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:4:p:274-282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.06.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922142512000485
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
    2. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2005. "Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 120-147, April.
    3. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-747, November.
    4. Robert Jong & Ana María Herrera, 2011. "Dynamic Censored Regression and the Open Market Desk Reaction Function," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 228-237, April.
    5. Rogers, J. M. & Siklos, P. L., 2003. "Foreign exchange market intervention in two small open economies: the Canadian and Australian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 393-416, June.
    6. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
    7. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 1-10.
    8. Galati, Gabriele & Melick, William & Micu, Marian, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 982-1011, October.
    9. Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini, 1998. "A tobit model with garch errors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 85-104.
    10. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
    11. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Deviations from daily uncovered interest rate parity and the role of intervention," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 363-379, December.
    12. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Gruijters, A.P.D., 1989. "On the short term objectives of daily intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the federal reserve system in the U.S. Dollar-Deutsche Mark exchange market," Research Memorandum FEW 393, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2002. "The determinants of foreign exchange intervention by central banks: evidence from Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 619-649, October.
    14. Ana Maria Herrera & Pinar Ozbay, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 0501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    15. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl, 2008. "A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 389-401, December.
    16. Disyatat, Piti & Galati, Gabriele, 2007. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: Evidence from the Czech koruna," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 383-402, April.
    17. Almekinders, Geert J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W., 1996. "A friction model of daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1365-1380, September.
    18. Takatoshi Ito, 2005. "Interventions and Japanese economic recovery," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 219-239, November.
    19. Arabmazar, Abbas & Schmidt, Peter, 1981. "Further evidence on the robustness of the Tobit estimator to heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 253-258, November.
    20. Michael Frenkel & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2004. "Modeling coordinated foreign exchange market interventions: The case of the Japanese and U.S. interventions in the 1990s," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 709-729, September.
    21. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
    22. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2004. "Modeling the intensity of foreign exchange intervention activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 347-351, December.
    23. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "Japanese and U.S. interventions in the yen/U.S. dollar market: estimating the monetary authorities' reaction functions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 680-698, September.
    24. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
    25. Jun, Jongbyung, 2008. "Friction model and foreign exchange market intervention," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 477-489.
    26. Watanabe, Toshiaki & Harada, Kimie, 2006. "Effects of the Bank of Japan's intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 99-111, March.
    27. Hurd, Michael, 1979. "Estimation in truncated samples when there is heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 247-258.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Hernandez-Leal, Juan D. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "When multiple objectives meet multiple instruments: Identifying simultaneous monetary shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-101.
    2. Jianxu Liu & Mengjiao Wang & Li Yang & Sanzidur Rahman & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2020. "Agricultural Productivity Growth and Its Determinants in South and Southeast Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, June.
    3. He Li & Zhixiang Yu & Chuanjie Zhang & Zhuang Zhang, 2017. "Determination of China’s foreign exchange intervention: evidence from the Yuan/Dollar market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 62-81, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tobit GARCH; Central bank intervention; Bank of Japan; Censored data; Probit;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:4:p:274-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.