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A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions

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  • CHIH‐NAN CHEN
  • TSUTOMU WATANABE
  • TOMOYOSHI YABU

Abstract

The monetary authorities react even to intraday changes in the exchange rate; however, in most cases, intervention data is available only at a daily frequency. This temporal aggregation makes it difficult to identify the effects of interventions on the exchange rate. We propose a new method based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to cope with this endogeneity problem: We use "data augmentation" to obtain intraday intervention amounts and then estimate the efficacy of interventions using the augmented data. Applying this method to Japanese data, we find that an intervention of one trillion yen moves the yen/dollar rate by 1.7 percent, which is more than twice as large as the magnitude reported in previous studies applying OLS to daily observations. This shows the quantitative importance of the endogeneity problem due to temporal aggregation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Chih‐Nan Chen & Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2012. "A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1507-1533, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i:8:p:1507-1533
    DOI: j.1538-4616.2012.00542.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00542.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "A transaction level study of the effects of central bank intervention on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 331-352, December.
    2. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective, and through Which Channel Does It Work?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 75-98, November.
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    7. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2003. "Is sterilised foreign exchange intervention effective after all? an event study approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 390-411, April.
    8. McCrorie, J. Roderick & Chambers, Marcus J., 2006. "Granger causality and the sampling of economic processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 311-336, June.
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    11. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, October.
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    17. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rasmus Fatum & Yohei Yamamoto, 2012. "Does foreign exchange intervention volume matter?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "Uncertainty over Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from dispersion of expectations as a measure of uncertainty," Discussion papers 16010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Moura, Marcelo L. & Pereira, Fatima R. & Attuy, Guilherme de Moraes, 2013. "Currency Wars in Action: How Foreign Exchange Interventions Work in an Emerging Economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_304, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    4. Toshio Utsunomiya, 2013. "A new approach to the effect of intervention frequency on the foreign exchange market: evidence from Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3742-3759, September.
    5. Watanabe, Tsutomu & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2013. "The great intervention and massive money injection: The Japanese experience 2003–2004," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 428-443.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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