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The dynamic impact of FX interventions on financial markets

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  • Rieth, Malte
  • Menkhoff, Lukas
  • Stöhr, Tobias

Abstract

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions in the prevailing higher frequency approaches leaves a gap at horizons going beyond a few days. This is addressed by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Using Japanese data, we find that FX interventions significantly affect exchange rates, although the effect is smaller than in emerging markets, and this impact persists for up to a year. There is no major effect on interest rates, but stock prices increase in line with currency devaluation, in particular those of large (exporting) firms. The results qualitatively hold for US and UK interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rieth, Malte & Menkhoff, Lukas & Stöhr, Tobias, 2019. "The dynamic impact of FX interventions on financial markets," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203504, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc19:203504
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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Naef & Jacob P. Weber, 2021. "Regional How Powerful is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," Working papers 834, Banque de France.
    2. Fratzscher, Marcel & Heidland, Tobias & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik, 2020. "Foreign exchange intervention: A new database," Kiel Working Papers 2171, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Currency manipulation and currency wars: Analyzing the dynamics of competitive central bank interventions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Lucía Arango-Lozano & Lukas Menkhoff & Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2020. "The Effectiveness of FX Interventions: A Meta-Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1132, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Naef, Alain & Weber, Jacob, 2021. "How Powerful Is Unannounced, Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention?," SocArXiv bfehz, Center for Open Science.
    6. Andrew Filardo & Thomas McGregor & Mr. R. G Gelos, 2022. "Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention," IMF Working Papers 2022/158, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Freddy A. Pinzón-Puerto & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2023. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? A Foreign Exchange Intervention Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange intervention; structural VAR; exchange rates; interest rates; stock prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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