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Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention

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  • Andrew Filardo
  • Mr. Gaston Gelos
  • Thomas McGregor

Abstract

This paper develops a new approach for exploring the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention, focusing on real exchange cycles. Using band spectrum regression methods, it examines the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in determining the equilibrium real exchange rate at short-, medium-, and low frequencies. Next, it assesses the effectiveness of FX intervention depending on the degree of cycle-specific misalignments for 26 advanced- and emerging market economies, covering the period 1990–2018, and using different techniques to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Evidence supports the hypothesis that central banks can lean effectively against short-run cyclical misalignments of the real exchange rate. The effects are present in quarterly data—i.e., at policy-relevant horizons. The effectiveness of intervention rises with the size of the misalignment, and with the duration of one-sided interventions. FX sales appear to be somewhat more effective than FX purchases, and intervention is less effective in more liquid FX markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Filardo & Mr. Gaston Gelos & Thomas McGregor, 2022. "Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention," IMF Working Papers 2022/158, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/158
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    4. Jara, Alejandro & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and the effectiveness of FX interventions: The case of Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange intervention; real exchange rates; equilibrium exchange rate; classical cycles; central banking; band spectrum regression.; exchange rate intervention; macro fundamentals; FX sale; FX purchase; FX intervention; measuring exchange rate misalignment; Exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; Foreign assets; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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