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The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions

  • Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma
  • Gernot Doppelhofer
  • Martin Feldkircher

We use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to evaluate the robustness of determinants of economic growth in a new dataset of 255 European regions in the period 1995-2005. We use three different specifications based on (i) the cross-section of regions, (ii) the cross-section of regions with country fixed effects, and (iii) the cross-section of regions with a spatial autoregressive (SAR) structure. Our results indicate that the income convergence process between countries is dominated by the catching-up process of regions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), whereas convergence within countries is mostly a characteristic of regions in old EU member states. We find robust evidence of asymmetric growth performance within countries, with a growth bonus in regions containing capital cities which is particularly sizeable in CEE countries, as well as a robust positive effect of education. The results are robust if we allow for spatial spillovers a priori. In this setting, we also find robust evidence of positive spillovers leading to growth clusters.

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Paper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Working Papers with number 57.

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Length: 32 pages including 7 Tables and 4 Figures
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as wiiw Working Paper
Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:57
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  1. Roberto Basile, 2008. "Regional economic growth in Europe: A semiparametric spatial dependence approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(4), pages 527-544, November.
  2. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, 02.
  3. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2007. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4238, The World Bank.
  4. Eklund, Jana & Karlsson, Sune, 2007. "Computational Efficiency in Bayesian Model and Variable Selection," Working Papers 2007:4, Örebro University, School of Business.
  5. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Luisa Corrado & Ron Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Identifying and Interpreting Regional Convergence Clusters across Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C133-C160, 03.
  7. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer, 2006. "Nonlinearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) Approach," Vienna Economics Papers 0608, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  8. Becker, Sascha & Egger, Peter H & Fenge, Robert & von, Ehrlich Maximilian, 2008. "Going NUTS: The Effect of EU Structural Funds on Regional Performance," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2008-27, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  9. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty And The Speed Of Income Convergence In Europe," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 720-741, 06.
  10. James Lesage & Manfred Fischer, 2008. "Spatial Growth Regressions: Model Specification, Estimation and Interpretation," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 275-304.
  11. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  13. Olivier Parent & James P. Lesage, 2007. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Spatial Econometric Models ," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2007-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
  14. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  15. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  16. Olivier Parent & James P. Lesage, 2007. "Using the Variance Structure of the Conditional Autoregressive Spatial Specification to Model Knowledge Spillovers," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2007-03, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
  17. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  18. Michele Boldrin & Fabio Canova, 2001. "Inequality and convergence in Europe's regions: reconsidering European regional policies," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 205-253, 04.
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