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Unraveling the fortunes of the fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) approach

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  • Eicher, Theo S.
  • Papageorgiou, Chris
  • Roehn, Oliver

Abstract

We investigate country heterogeneity in cross-country growth regressions. In contrast to the previous literature that focuses on low-income countries, this study also highlights growth determinants in high-income (OECD) countries. We introduce Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) to address not only potential parameter heterogeneity, but also the model uncertainty inherent in growth regressions. IBMA is essential to our estimation because the simultaneous consideration of model uncertainty and parameter heterogeneity in standard growth regressions increases the number of candidate regressors beyond the processing capacity of ordinary BMA algorithms. Our analysis generates three results that strongly support different dimensions of parameter heterogeneity. First, while a large number of regressors can be identified as growth determinants in Non-OECD countries, the same regressors are irrelevant for OECD countries. Second, Non-OECD countries and the global sample feature only a handful of common growth determinants. Third, and most devastatingly, the long list of variables included in popular cross-country datasets does not contain regressors that begin to satisfactorily characterize the basic growth determinants in OECD countries.
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  • Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Roehn, Oliver, 2007. "Unraveling the fortunes of the fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 494-514, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:29:y:2007:i:3:p:494-514
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    Cited by:

    1. Rockey, James & Temple, Jonathan, 2016. "Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-102.
    2. Flachaire, Emmanuel & García-Peñalosa, Cecilia & Konte, Maty, 2014. "Political versus economic institutions in the growth process," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 212-229.
    3. Horváth, Roman, 2013. "Does trust promote growth?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 777-788.
    4. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
    5. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
    6. Aharonovitz, Gilad David & Nyaga, Elizabeth Kabura, 2010. "Values, Cultural Practices, and Economic Performance: Theory and Some Evidence from Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1156-1167, August.
    7. Gilad D. Aharonovitz, 2011. "Why Cannot Poor Countries Utilize Existing Knowledge? Expansion Of Firms And Human Capital Accumulation By Training," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 108-121, January.
    8. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    9. Ruggieri, Eric & Lawrence, Charles E., 2012. "On efficient calculations for Bayesian variable selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1319-1332.
    10. Cohen-Cole, Ethan B. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2012. "Nonlinearities in growth: From evidence to policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 42-58.
    11. Parmeter, Christopher F., 2008. "The effect of measurement error on the estimated shape of the world distribution of income," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 373-376, September.
    12. Theo Eicher & Oliver Röhn, 2007. "Institutional Determinants of Economic Performance in OECD Countries – An Institutions Climate Index," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 5(1), pages 38-49, 05.
    13. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
    14. Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prüfer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Discussion Paper 2008-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Ng, Adam & Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Mirakhor, Abbas, 2016. "Does trust contribute to stock market development?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 239-250.
    16. Kourtellos, Andros & Stengos, Thanasis & Tan, Chih Ming, 2013. "The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 35-43.
    17. Maltritz, Dominik, 2012. "Determinants of sovereign yield spreads in the Eurozone: A Bayesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 657-672.
    18. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    19. Philipp Piribauer, 2016. "Heterogeneity in spatial growth clusters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 659-680, September.
    20. Stadelmann, David, 2010. "Which factors capitalize into house prices? A Bayesian averaging approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 180-204, September.
    21. Man, Georg, 2015. "Competition and the growth of nations: International evidence from Bayesian model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 491-501.
    22. Philip Bodman & Harry Campbell & Kelly-Ana Heaton & Andrew Hodge, "undated". "Fiscal Decentralisation, Macroeconomic Conditions and Economic Growth in Australia," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2609, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    23. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn & Chris Papageorgiou, 2012. "Trade creation and diversion revisited: Accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 296-321, March.
    24. Philip Bodman & Kelly-Ana Heaton & Andrew Hodge, "undated". "Fiscal Decentralisation and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3509, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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