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Robust Growth Determinants

  • Doppelhofer, Gernot

    ()

    (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Weeks, Melvyn

    ()

    (University of Cambridge)

This paper investigates the robustness of determinants of economic growth in the presence of model uncertainty, parameter heterogeneity and outliers. The robust model averaging approach introduced in the paper uses a flexible and parsi- monious mixture modeling that allows for fat-tailed errors compared to the normal benchmark case. Applying robust model averaging to growth determinants, the paper finds that eight out of eighteen variables found to be significantly related to economic growth by Sala-i-Martin et al. (2004) are sensitive to deviations from benchmark model averaging. For example, the GDP shares of mining or government consumption, are no longer robust or economically significant once deviations from the normal benchmark assumptions are allowed. The paper identifies outlying observations { most notably Botswana { in explaining economic growth in a cross-section of countries.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics in its series Discussion Paper Series in Economics with number 3/2011.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 07 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2011_003
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  1. Fern ndez, Carmen & Steel, Mark F.J., 2000. "Bayesian Regression Analysis With Scale Mixtures Of Normals," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 80-101, February.
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  9. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 1998. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 26, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  10. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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  12. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  13. Canova, Fabio, 2001. "Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita : a predictive density approach," HWWA Discussion Papers 139, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  14. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2007. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series 1978, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Zaman, Asad & Rousseeuw, Peter J. & Orhan, Mehmet, 2001. "Econometric applications of high-breakdown robust regression techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 1-8, April.
  16. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  17. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 44-67, January.
  18. Papageorgiou, Chris, 2007. "Editorial Introduction - Special issue "On the Empirics of Growth Nonlinearities"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages iii-iv, September.
  19. Luisa Corrado & Ron Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Identifying and Interpreting Regional Convergence Clusters across Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C133-C160, 03.
  20. Theo Eicher & Chris Papageogiou & Adrian E Raftery, 2007. "Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2007-25-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  21. Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October.
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  23. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited; On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 09/202, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Olivier Parent & James Lesage, 2005. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Spatial Econometric Models," Post-Print hal-00375489, HAL.
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