IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wiwwuw/wuwp193.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Comprehensive Approach to Posterior Jointness Analysis in Bayesian Model Averaging Applications

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Bettina Grün

    (Department of Applied Statistics, Johannes Kepler University Linz)

  • Paul Hofmarcher

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Stefan Humer

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Mathias Moser

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

Posterior analysis in Bayesian model averaging (BMA) applications often includes the assessment of measures of jointness (joint inclusion) across covariates. We link the discussion of jointness measures in the econometric literature to the literature on association rules in data mining exercises. We analyze a group of alternative jointness measures that include those proposed in the BMA literature and several others put forward in the field of data mining. The way these measures address the joint exclusion of covariates appears particularly important in terms of the conclusions that can be drawn from them. Using a dataset of economic growth determinants, we assess how the measurement of jointness in BMA can affect inference about the structure of bivariate inclusion patterns across covariates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Bettina Grün & Paul Hofmarcher & Stefan Humer & Mathias Moser, 2015. "A Comprehensive Approach to Posterior Jointness Analysis in Bayesian Model Averaging Applications," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp193, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp193
    Note: PDF Document
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://epub.wu.ac.at/4493/1/wp193.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2012. "Mixtures of g-priors for Bayesian model averaging with economic applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 251-266.
    2. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2009. "Jointness of growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 209-244, March.
    3. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2009. "Jointness of growth determinants: Reply to comments by Rodney Strachan, Eduardo Ley and Mark F.J. Steel," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 252-256, March.
    4. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    6. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 566-579, May.
    7. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    8. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited: On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 2009/202, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    10. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Grün, Bettina & Hofmarcher, Paul & Humer, Stefan & Moser, Mathias, 2016. "Unveiling covariate inclusion structures in economic growth regressions using latent class analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 189-202.
    11. Liang, Feng & Paulo, Rui & Molina, German & Clyde, Merlise A. & Berger, Jim O., 2008. "Mixtures of g Priors for Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 410-423, March.
    12. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September.
    13. Rodney W. Strachan, 2009. "Comment on ‘Jointness of growth determinants’ by Gernot Doppelhofer and Melvyn Weeks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 245-247, March.
    14. Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2009. "Comments on ‘Jointness of growth determinants’," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 248-251, March.
    15. Hahsler, Michael & Grün, Bettina & Hornik, Kurt, 2005. "arules - A Computational Environment for Mining Association Rules and Frequent Item Sets," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i15).
    16. Hahsler, Michael & Hornik, Kurt & Buchta, Christian, 2008. "Getting Things in Order: An Introduction to the R Package seriation," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 25(i03).
    17. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam Slez, 2019. "The Difference Between Instability and Uncertainty: Comment on Young and Holsteen (2017)," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 48(2), pages 400-430, May.
    2. Hofmarcher, Paul & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Grün, Bettina & Humer, Stefan & Moser, Mathias, 2018. "Bivariate jointness measures in Bayesian Model Averaging: Solving the conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 150-165.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hofmarcher, Paul & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Grün, Bettina & Humer, Stefan & Moser, Mathias, 2018. "Bivariate jointness measures in Bayesian Model Averaging: Solving the conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 150-165.
    2. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    3. Rockey, James & Temple, Jonathan, 2016. "Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-102.
    4. León-González, Roberto & Montolio, Daniel, 2015. "Endogeneity and panel data in growth regressions: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-39.
    5. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
    6. Bruns, Stephan B. & Ioannidis, John P.A., 2020. "Determinants of economic growth: Different time different answer?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Iftekhar Hasan & Roman Horvath & Jan Mares, 2018. "What Type of Finance Matters for Growth? Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 383-409.
    8. Aart Kraay & Norikazu Tawara, 2013. "Can specific policy indicators identify reform priorities?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 253-283, September.
    9. K. Benkovskis & B. Bluhm & E. Bobeica & C. Osbat & S. Zeugner, 2020. "What drives export market shares? It depends! An empirical analysis using Bayesian model averaging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 817-869, August.
    10. Man, Georg, 2015. "Competition and the growth of nations: International evidence from Bayesian model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 491-501.
    11. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Marcin Błażejowski & Jacek Kwiatkowski & Jakub Gazda, 2019. "Sources of Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    13. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Grün, Bettina & Hofmarcher, Paul & Humer, Stefan & Moser, Mathias, 2016. "Unveiling covariate inclusion structures in economic growth regressions using latent class analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 189-202.
    14. Paul Hofmarcher & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Bettina Grün & Kurt Hornik, 2015. "Last Night a Shrinkage Saved My Life: Economic Growth, Model Uncertainty and Correlated Regressors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 133-144, March.
    15. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2007. "On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4238, The World Bank.
    16. Błażejowski, Marcin & Kwiatkowski, Jacek, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Jointness Measures for gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i05).
    17. Doppelhofer, Gernot & Weeks, Melvyn, 2011. "Robust Growth Determinants," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 3/2011, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    18. Jetter, Michael & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2018. "Sorting through global corruption determinants: Institutions and education matter – Not culture," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 279-294.
    19. Bettina Grün & Paul Hofmarcher, 2021. "Identifying groups of determinants in Bayesian model averaging using Dirichlet process clustering," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(3), pages 1018-1045, September.
    20. Joseph, Andreas & Osbat, Chiara, 2016. "How you export matters: the disassortative structure of international trade," Working Paper Series 1958, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Model Averaging; Jointness; Robust Growth Determinants; Machine Learning; Association Rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Department of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.wu.ac.at/economics/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.