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What drives export market shares? It depends! An empirical analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging

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  • Osbat, Chiara
  • Benkovskis, Konstantins
  • Bluhm, Benjamin
  • Bobeica, Elena
  • Zeugner, Stefan

Abstract

What drives external performance of countries? This is a recurring question in academia and policy. The factors underlying export growth are receiving great attention, as countries struggle to grow out of the crisis by increasing exports and as protectionist discourses take foot again. Despite decades of debates, it is still unclear what the drivers of external performance are and, importantly, which ones policy makers can influence. We use Bayesian Model Averaging in a panel setting to investigate the drivers of export market shares of 25 EU countries, considering a wide range of traditional indicators along with novel ones developed within the CompNet Competitiveness Research Network. We find that export market share growth is linked to different factors in the old and in the new Member States, with one exception: for both groups, competitive pressures from China have strongly affected export performance since the early 2000s. In the case of old EU Member States, investment, quality of institutions and available liquidity to firms also appear to play a role. For the new EU Member States, labour and total factor productivity are particularly important, while inward FDI matters rather than domestic investment. Price competitiveness does not seem to play a very important role in either set of countries: relative export prices do show correlation with export performance for the new Member States, but only when they are adjusted for quality. Our results point to the importance of considering the “exporting stage” of a country when discussing export-enhancing policies. JEL Classification: C23, C51, C55, F14, O52

Suggested Citation

  • Osbat, Chiara & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Bluhm, Benjamin & Bobeica, Elena & Zeugner, Stefan, 2017. "What drives export market shares? It depends! An empirical analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging," Working Paper Series 2090, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172090
    Note: 261931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Fabiani & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Roberto Torrini, 2019. "Making room for new competitors. A comparative perspective on Italy’s exports in the euro-area market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 530, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Staehr, Karsten, 2021. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 204-217.
    3. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Searching The Us Fdi Determinants In The Eu: Is There A Euro Effect?," Working Papers 1916, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Model Averaging; competitiveness; export shares;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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