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Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques

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  • Mariam Camarero

    (INTECO & Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Sergi Moliner

    (INTECO & Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Cecilio Tamarit

    (INTECO & Department of Applied Economics II, University of Valencia, Spain)

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the potential determinants of US outward FDI stock with a particular focus on the euro effect during the period 1985-2016. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Our sample includes a total of 51 host countries, that represents the 70% of US outward FDI stock. We study the role of the euro on American FDI patterns both in Europe and the rest of the world. Within Europe, we consider the European Union (EU) and the Euro Area (EA), and core and periphery within the EA. Although we conclude that US FDI is explained by both horizontal and vertical motives, we find that HFDI strategies predominate in EA core countries, whereas VFDI prevails in the EA periphery.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques," Working Papers 2020/25, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2020/25
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    Keywords

    FDI determinants; Foreign Direct Investment; US; European Union; Euro area; Bayesian Model Averaging; Variable selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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