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Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging

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  • Camarero, Mariam
  • Moliner, Sergi
  • Tamarit, Cecilio

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the determinants of Japanese outward FDI stock for the period 1996–2017. This period is especially relevant as it covers a process of increasing economic globalization and two financial crises. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. Our sample includes a total of 27 host countries. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Moreover, we also analyse whether these determinants change depending on the degree of development (emerging vs developed) or the geographical areas (EU vs East Asia) of the countries considered. We find that Japan's FDI can be explained by a wide variety of variables, that include not only the typical gravitational ones but also institutional and macroeconomic variables, including those that measure financial development. Moreover, Japanese FDI can be explained by both horizontal and vertical FDI motives in the groups of countries analysed. However, in developed, and more precisely, EU countries, horizontal FDI strategies are predominant, whereas for East Asian and emerging countries, there is more evidence in favour of vertical FDI.

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  • Camarero, Mariam & Moliner, Sergi & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2021. "Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:57:y:2021:i:c:s0922142521000050
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2021.101058
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japan; Foreign direct investment; Bayesian Model Averaging; Gravity; Financial development; Institutional quality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • R39 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other

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