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The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia

  • Willem Thorbecke

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

This paper considers how exchange rates affect East Asian trade. The evidence indicates that exports produced within regional production networks depend on exchange rates throughout the region while labor-intensive exports depend on exchange rates in the exporting country. These results make sense since the majority of the value-added of processed exports come from imported parts and components while most of the value-added of labor-intensive exports comes from the domestic economy. Recent findings also indicate that imbalances between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States are a major outlier and that an appreciation of the PRC yuan (CNY) is necessary to reduce these imbalances.

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File URL: http://www.eaber.org/node/23274
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Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Trade Working Papers with number 23274.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:23274
Contact details of provider: Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org

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  1. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  2. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2003. "Long-run supply effects and the elasticities approach to trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 754, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 022003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  5. Leamer, E. & Levingsohn, J., 1994. "International Trade Theory: The Evidence," Working Papers 368, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  6. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
  7. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  8. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," International Finance Discussion Papers 789, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Kyoji Fukao & Hikari Ishido & Keiko Ito, 2003. "Vertical Intra-Industry Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia," Discussion papers 03001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  10. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  11. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center.
  12. Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center.
  13. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2004. "Growth-led exports: is variety the spice of trade?," International Finance Discussion Papers 822, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
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