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China'S Exchange Rate Policy And Asian Trade

  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero
  • Tuuli Koivu

This paper shows empirically that China's trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the Renminbi real effective exchange rate. However, the current size of the 'trade surplus is such that exchange rate policy, alone, will probably not be able to address the imbalance. The reduction in the trade surplus is limited mainly because Chinese imports do not react as expected to exchange rate appreciation. In fact, they tend to fall rather than increase. By estimating bilateral import equations for China and its major trading partners, we find that such reaction of imports to exchange rate appreciation is generally confirmed for South-East Asian countries but not for others. This might be a direct consequence of Asia's vertical integration as a large share of Chinese imports from Southeast Asia is directed to re-exporting.

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File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev116/ei116c.htm
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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 116 ()
Pages: 53-92

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2008-4tc
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  1. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy Coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-101, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
  3. Peter Hooper & Karen H. Johnson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Tamim Bayoumi & Jaewoo Lee & Sarma Jayanthi, 2006. "New Rates from New Weights," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 4.
  5. Jaime R. Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Working Paper Series 2006-41, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Jan Voon & Li Guangzhong & Jimmy Ran, 2006. "Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? Evidence from some export industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1715-1723.
  7. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 887, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Jaime R. Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  9. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows; Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 99/1, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center.
  11. Willem Thorbecke, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23274, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  12. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2003. "How responsive is Chinese export supply to market signals?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 350-370.
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