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China'S Exchange Rate Policy And Asian Trade

Author

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  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero
  • Tuuli Koivu

Abstract

This paper shows empirically that China's trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the Renminbi real effective exchange rate. However, the current size of the 'trade surplus is such that exchange rate policy, alone, will probably not be able to address the imbalance. The reduction in the trade surplus is limited mainly because Chinese imports do not react as expected to exchange rate appreciation. In fact, they tend to fall rather than increase. By estimating bilateral import equations for China and its major trading partners, we find that such reaction of imports to exchange rate appreciation is generally confirmed for South-East Asian countries but not for others. This might be a direct consequence of Asia's vertical integration as a large share of Chinese imports from Southeast Asia is directed to re-exporting.

Suggested Citation

  • Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Tuuli Koivu, 2008. "China'S Exchange Rate Policy And Asian Trade," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 53-92.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2008-4tc
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev116/ei116c.htm
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows; Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 99/1, International Monetary Fund.
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    9. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 887, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Jan Voon & Li Guangzhong & Jimmy Ran, 2006. "Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? Evidence from some export industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1715-1723.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Schnabl & Kristina Spantig, 2016. "(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Zhang, Chenying, 2010. "Sterilization in China: Effectiveness and Cost," Working Papers 10-29, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    3. repec:fdi:wpaper:1785 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Xing, Yuqing, 2012. "Processing trade, exchange rates and China's bilateral trade balances," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 540-547.
    5. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    6. repec:fdi:wpaper:1786 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2015. "Effects of renminbi appreciation on foreign firms: The role of processing exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 146-157.
    8. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.
    9. Mohammadi, Hassan & Yue, Kan, 2012. "On Trade Balance and Exchange Rates: Further Evidence from China’s Bilateral Trade - La bilancia commerciale e i tassi di cambio: ulteriori evidenze dalle bilance commerciali bilaterali cinesi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 65(4), pages 581-604.
    10. Feldkircher, Martin & Korhonen, Iikka, 2012. "The rise of China and its implications for emerging markets : Evidence from a GVAR model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Li, Hongbin & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2015. "How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports? — A firm-level investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 148-161.
    12. Ryan, John, 2009. "China and the Reserve Currency Question," MPRA Paper 18218, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Trade; Exports; Real Exchange Rate;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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