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China: Exchange Rate Policy and Asian Trade

  • Alicia García-Herrero
  • Tuuli Koivu

This paper shows empirically that China s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the renminbi real effective exchange rate. However, the current size of the trade surplus is such that exchange rate policy, alone, will probably not be able to address the imbalance. The reduction in the trade surplus is limited mainly because Chinese imports do not react as expected to exchange rate appreciation. In fact, they tend to fall rather than increase. By estimating bilateral import equations for China and its major trading partners, we find that such reaction of imports to exchange rate appreciation is generally confirmed for South-East Asian countries but not for others. This might be a direct consequence of Asia s vertical integration as a large share of Chinese imports from Southeast Asia is directed to reexporting. We also find that the total exports from a number of Asian countries react negatively to a renminbi appreciation, which points to a dependence of Asian countries exports on those of China.

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Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 0916.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:0916
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  1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Jayanthi, Sarma & Lee, Jaewoo, 2006. "New Rates from New Weights," CEPR Discussion Papers 5860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Willem Thorbecke, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Finance Working Papers 23274, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
  4. Peter Hooper & Karen H. Johnson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy Coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-101, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  6. Jaime R. Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Working Paper Series 2006-41, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center.
  8. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 887, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Jaime R. Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  10. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows; Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 99/1, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2003. "How responsive is Chinese export supply to market signals?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 350-370.
  12. Jan Voon & Li Guangzhong & Jimmy Ran, 2006. "Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? Evidence from some export industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1715-1723.
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