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Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report

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Abstract

The rising current account deficit in the USA has attracted considerable attention in recent years. We use the \"business cycle accounting\" methodology to identify the principal distortions that have affected the external accounts of the US. In particular, we measure distortions in the optimality conditions of a simple two-country general equilibrium model using data from the US and the other G7 countries. We then feed these measured distortions into the model individually and use the simulated counterfactual paths of the current account to determine the contribution of each of these \"wedges\" to the overall external imbalance of the USA. We find that no single wedge in isolation can account closely for the observed current account. However, a combination of productivity differences and deviations from risk-sharing between the US and the rest of the G7 does the best job in accounting for most of the measured movement of the US current account.

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  • Jaime R. Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Working Paper Series 2006-41, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-41
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    1. Willem Thorbecke, 2011. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes On Trade In East Asia," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 85-102.
    2. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
    3. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "New Rates from New Weights," IMF Working Papers 2005/099, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mrs. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows: Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 1999/001, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Vanessa Rossi, 2005. "Is revaluation of the renminbi good news?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(03), pages 29-36, June.
    7. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2003. "How responsive is Chinese export supply to market signals?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 350-370.
    8. Deborah L. Swenson, 2004. "Foreign Investment and the Mediation of Trade Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 609-629, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Tuuli Koivu, 2008. "China'S Exchange Rate Policy And Asian Trade," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 53-92.
    2. Whalley, John & Wang, Li, 2011. "The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trade flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 614-621, January.
    3. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada.
    4. Mizanur RAHMAN & Willem THORBECKE, 2007. "How Would China's Exports be Affected by a Unilateral Appreciation of the RMB and a Joint Appreciation of Countries Supplying Intermediate Imports?," Discussion papers 07012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Garcia-Herrero, Alicia & Koivu, Tuuli, 2007. "Can the chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Döhrn, Roland & Brüstle, Alena & Middendorf, Torge & Schmidt, Torsten, 2006. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Nachlassende Expansion," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 57(2), pages 83-108.
    7. Glenn Hoggarth & Hui Tong, 2007. "The impact of yuan revaluation on the Asian region," Bank of England working papers 329, Bank of England.
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_006 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates - China; Trade; Econometric models;
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