Estimating Trade Elasticities for World Capital Goods Exports
Capital goods exports exceed $3 trillion and are volatile. This paper estimates trade elasticities for capital goods exports. For the UK and the U.S., exports depend on exchange rates. For Germany and France they do not. For Japan, exports to non-Asian countries depend on exchange rates and exports to Asian countries depend on Asia's exports to the rest of the world. For all countries, capital exports depend on GDP in the importing countries. These results imply that U.S. exports tumbled in 2009 because the dollar appreciated and global growth slowed. They also indicate that Japanese exports crashed because of the perfect storm of a yen appreciation, a global slowdown, and a collapse in Asia's exports.
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