IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Germany's Exports


  • THORBECKE, Willem
  • KATO Atsuyuki


Germany's nominal exchange rate has remained weaker because it is linked to weaker eurozone economies. Germany's real exchange rate also depreciated vis-à-vis eurozone countries after 2000 because German firms and workers controlled unit labor costs. This paper investigates how exchange rate changes affect German exports. Results from Johansen maximum likelihood and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation indicate that the export elasticity for the unit labor cost-deflated exchange rate equals 0.6. Results from panel DOLS estimation indicate that price elasticities are much higher for consumption goods exports than for capital goods exports and for exports to the eurozone than for exports outside of it. These results imply that Germany's internal devaluation after 2000 contributed to a surge in exports to Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • THORBECKE, Willem & KATO Atsuyuki, 2012. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Germany's Exports," Discussion papers 12081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:12081

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "France, Germany, Italy, and Spain; Explaining Differences in External Sector Performance Among Large Euro Area Countries," IMF Staff Country Reports 05/401, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jarkko Turunen & Richard T. Harmsen & Tamim Bayoumi, 2011. "Euro Area Export Performance and Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 11/140, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Muneesh Kapur & Rakesh Mohan, 2014. "India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance; An Assessment and Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 14/68, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Styliani Christodoulopoulou & Oļegs Tkačevs, 2016. "Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 487-531, August.
    3. Ryota Nakatani, 2014. "The Effects of Financial and Real Shocks, Structural Vulnerability and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates from the Perspective of Currency Crises Models," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 043, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Keiko Ito & Junko Shimizu, 2015. "Industry-Level Competitiveness, Productivity and Effective Exchange Rates in East Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 181-214, June.
    5. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.
    6. Baak, SaangJoon, 2014. "Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-271.
    7. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.
    8. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2014. "Do Export Price Elasticities Support Tensions In Currency Markets? Evidence From China And Six Oecd Countries," Working Papers 201405, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:12081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (KUMAGAI, Akiko). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.