The Contribution of the Yen Appreciation since 2007 to the Japanese Economic Debacle
The Japanese yen in 2012 remains 25 percent above its value in 2007. Exports, industrial production, and stock prices crashed after 2007 and have yet to regain their pre-crash values. This paper investigates the contribution of the yen appreciation to this economic disaster. Evidence from Johansen maximum likelihood and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimation indicates that a 25 percent appreciation reduces long run exports by 8 – 18 percent. Panel DOLS evidence reveals that the appreciation especially depressed exports in the automobile sector. Regression evidence implies that the yen appreciation caused yen export prices to fall 29 percent in the automobile sector and 22 percent in the electrical and electronics sector. Finally, evidence from estimating exchange rate exposures indicates that the yen appreciation has reduced profitability significantly in the automobile and electronics sectors. Japanese firms could mitigate some of these harmful effects by focusing on innovating rather than competing based on price in commoditized industries.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 33 01 53 68 55 00
Fax: 33 01 53 68 55 01
Web page: http://www.cepii.fr
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- THORBECKE, Willem & Hao-Kai PAI, 2013. "The Sophistication of East Asian Exports," Discussion papers 13092, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005.
"Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific,"
International Economics and Economic Policy,
Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
- Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy Coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-101, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy Coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 05-E-4, Bank of Japan.
- Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
- Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Tesar, Linda L., 2006.
"Exchange rate exposure,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 188-218, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Ceglowski, Janet, 2010. "Has pass-through to export prices risen? Evidence for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 86-98, March.
- Chamberlain, Sandra & Howe, John S. & Popper, Helen, 1997. "The exchange rate exposure of U.S. and Japanese banking institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 871-892, June.
- C. H. Kwan, 2002. "The Rise of China and Asia's Flying-Geese Pattern of Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis Based on US Import Statistics," Discussion papers 02009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
- THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Japanese Electronics Industry," Discussion papers 12019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S., 2004.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Thorbecke, Willem, 2008. "Global imbalances, triangular trading patterns, and the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 503-517, December.
- Prabhath Jayasinghe & Albert K. Tsui, 2007.
"Exchange Rate Exposure of Sectoral Returns and Volatilities: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Sectors,"
SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series
0710, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
- Jayasinghe, Prabhath & Tsui, Albert K., 2008. "Exchange rate exposure of sectoral returns and volatilities: Evidence from Japanese industrial sectors," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 639-660, December.
- Leland Crane & Meredith Crowley & Saad Quayyum, 2007. "Understanding the evolution of trade deficits: trade elasticities of industrialized countries," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 2-17.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.