IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global imbalances, triangular trading patterns, and the yen/dollar exchange rate


  • Thorbecke, Willem


Trade imbalances between Japan and the U.S. could cause the yen to appreciate against the dollar. Evidence presented here indicates that this could increase the U.S. trade deficit with Japan. An appreciation of the yen against the dollar would also cause the yen to appreciate against the RMB and other currencies in East Asia with heavily managed exchange rate regimes. Results reported here indicate that this would reduce the flow of capital and intermediate goods from Japan to East Asia, forcing firms to economize on sophisticated technology-intensive inputs that are difficult to procure elsewhere. This problem would be mitigated if countries in developing Asia adopted more flexible exchange rate regimes. J. Japanese Int. Economies 22 (4) (2008) 503-517.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorbecke, Willem, 2008. "Global imbalances, triangular trading patterns, and the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 503-517, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:503-517

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
    2. Leamer, Edward E. & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "International trade theory: The evidence," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1339-1394 Elsevier.
    3. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
    4. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    5. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    6. Urata, Shujiro & Kawai, Hiroki, 2000. "The Determinants of the Location of Foreign Direct Investment by Japanese Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 79-103, September.
    7. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    8. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," Working Paper Series WP-03-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 2004. "Estimator Choice and Fisher's Paradox: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 25-52.
    10. Kozo Kiyota & Shujiro Urata, 2004. "Exchange Rate, Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(10), pages 1501-1536, November.
    11. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
    12. Yushi Yoshida & Hiro Ito, 2006. "How Do the Asian Economies Compete With Japan in the US Market? Is China Exceptional? A Triangular Trade Approach," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 285-307, July.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    14. Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Thorbecke, Willem, 2014. "The contribution of the yen appreciation since 2007 to the Japanese economic debacle," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Andrea Fracasso & Stefano Schiavo, 2009. "Trade-imbalances networks and exchange rate adjustments: the paradox of a new Plaza. The XIVth Spring Meeting of Young Economists (SMYE-2009), Istanbul, April 2009," Post-Print hal-01053278, HAL.
    3. Willem Thorbecke, 2015. "Understanding Japan's Capital Goods Exports," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 536-549, December.
    4. Thorbecke, Willem & Kato, Atsuyuki, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports," ADBI Working Papers 298, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Nobuaki Hamaguchi & Silvio Miyazaki & Leonardo Correia, 2014. "State Space Application to Recent Automobile Sector Triangle Trade between Japan and Latin America," Discussion Paper Series DP2014-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    6. Thorbecke, Willem, 2008. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on fragmentation in East Asia: Evidence from the electronics industry," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 535-544, December.
    7. THORBECKE, Willem, 2009. "Can East Asia be an Engine of Growth for the World Economy?," Discussion papers 09006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "Estimating Trade Elasticities for World Capital Goods Exports," Discussion papers 12067, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10028 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Veysel Avsar & Kemal Turkcan, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Auto-Industry Exports: A Panel Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 772-787.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:503-517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.