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Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation

Author

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  • Jason Allen
  • Robert Amano
  • David Byrne
  • Allan Gregory

Abstract

The authors provide a detailed empirical analysis of Canadian city housing prices. They examine the long-run relationship between city house prices in Canada from 1981 to 2005 as well as idiosyncratic relations between city prices and city-specific variables. The results suggest that city house prices are only weakly correlated in the long run, and that there is a disconnect between house prices and interest rates. City-specific variables such as union wage levels, new-housing prices, and the issuance of building permits tend to be positively related to city existing-house prices. Surprisingly, there is mixed evidence with respect to standard measures of economic activity, such as labour force and per capita GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David Byrne & Allan Gregory, 2006. "Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation," Staff Working Papers 06-49, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-49
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yuan Zhang & Yiguo Sun & Thanasis Stengos, 2019. "Spatial Dependence in the Residential Canadian Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 223-263, February.
    2. David Albouy & Alex Chernoff & Chandler Lutz & Casey Warman, 2019. "Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 533-594.
    3. Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 2012/193, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 953-987, June.
    5. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
    6. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2014. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1172-1210, April.
    7. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(9), pages 1665-1682, July.
    8. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2016. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction: Corrigendum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1214-1219, April.
    9. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
    10. Jason Allen & Darcey McVanel, 2009. "Price Movements in the Canadian Residential Mortgage Market," Staff Working Papers 09-13, Bank of Canada.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Canada: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/163, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Lei Fang & Eric Smith & Zoe Xie, 2022. "The Short and the Long of It: Stock-Flow Matching in the US Housing Market," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2022-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Ting Zhang & Dan Gerlowski & Deborah Ford, 2014. "Housing price variability: national and local impacts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(28), pages 3494-3502, October.
    14. Alegría, Andrés & Alfaro, Rodrigo & Córdova, Felipe, 2021. "The effect of warnings published in a financial stability report on loan-to-value ratios," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    15. Kartashova, Katya & Tomlin, Ben, 2017. "House prices, consumption and the role of non-Mortgage debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 121-134.
    16. Islam, Shahidul, 2007. "Neighbourhood Characteristics and Adjacent Ravines on House Prices," Annual Meeting, 2007, July 29-August 1, Portland, Oregon 10250, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society.
    17. Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2009. "Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Post-crisis Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2009/235, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Julien Reynaud, 2015. "Gauging Housing Supply in Canada: A Stock Approach," IMF Working Papers 2015/128, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Luca Casolaro & Cristina Fabrizi, 2018. "House prices in local markets in Italy: dynamics, levels and the role of urban agglomerations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Tse, Chin-Bun & Rodgers, Timothy & Niklewski, Jacek, 2014. "The 2007 financial crisis and the UK residential housing market: Did the relationship between interest rates and house prices change?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 518-530.
    21. Andrés Alegría & Rodrigo Alfaro & Felipe Córdova, 2017. "The impact of warnings published in a financial stability report on loan-to value ratios," BIS Working Papers 633, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada.
    23. Marsha J. Courchane & Cynthia Holmes, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble ¡V Is there House Price Trouble -- in Canada?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 109-135.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional economic developments;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

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