Bubble, Bubble ¡V Is there House Price Trouble -- in Canada?
Canadian and U.S. real estate markets have compared similarly along dimensions such as inflation, mortgage interest rates, population and income growth and other measures. With respect to house prices, however, the series have moved in similar ways at some times, but then significantly diverged by the second quarter of 2007. For example, Canadian and U.S. house price indices reached essentially identical levels in 1987Q2, 1995Q1 and 2007Q2. As a consequence of the U.S. financial crisis and precipitous decline in house prices, the U.S. and Canadian indices have sharply diverged. Our paper examines whether or not the house price indices were driven by fundamentals during these time periods, or whether they diverged from fundamentals. We find that the U.S. house prices closely aligned with fundamentals until the mortgage markets crashed in 2008. We find that Canadian house prices continue to align with fundamentals. However, there have been some significant market changes between the two countries and key housing market measures indicate that Canadian markets are now moving along some paths similar to those taken by the U.S. prior to the crash.
Volume (Year): 17 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.asres.org/
|Order Information:|| Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA|
Web: http://www.asres.org/ Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009.
"Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
- Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp337, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Zemcik, Petr & Mikhed, Vyacheslav, 2009. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," ERES eres2009_275, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- William C. Wheaton & Gleb Nechayev, 2008. "The 1998 ?2005 Housing "Bubble" and the Current "Correction": Whatâ€™s Different This Time?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-26.
- Poterba, James M, 1984.
"Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November.
- James M. Poterba, 1983. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset Market Approach," Working papers 339, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
- Mayo, Stephen K., 1981. "Theory and estimation in the economics of housing demand," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 95-116, July.
- Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harmon, Oskar R., 1988. "The income elasticity of demand for single-family owner-occupied housing: An empirical reconciliation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 173-185, September.
- Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 2008. "Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 117-137, June.
- Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
- Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allen W. Gregory, 2006.
"Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation,"
06-49, Bank of Canada.
- Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
- Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2013.
"A Dynamic Model Of Housing Demand: Estimation And Policy Implications,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 409-442, 05.
- Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2010. "A Dynamic Model of Housing Demand: Estimation and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 15955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bajari, Patrick & Chan, Phoebe & Krueger, Dirk & Miller, Daniel, 2010. "A Dynamic Model of Housing Demand: Estimation and Policy Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 7911, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jesse M. Abraham & Patric H. Hendershott, 1994. "Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 4774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296, August.
- Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
- Patric H. Hendershott, 1980. "Real User Costs and the Demand for Single-Family Housing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 401-452.
- Capozza, Dennis R. & Mack, Charlotte & Hendershott, Patric H. & Mayer, Christopher J., 2002. "The Determinants of House Price Dynamics," ERES eres2002_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Coleman IV, Major & LaCour-Little, Michael & Vandell, Kerry D., 2008. "Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 272-290, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:17:n:01:2014:p:109-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IRER Secretary Office/Webmaster)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.