Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence
We investigate whether recently high U.S. house prices are justified by fundamental factors. The standard unit root and cointegration tests with aggregate data indicate that house rent is the only fundamental which has the same order of integration as the price, but these two variables are not cointegrated. Nationwide analysis potentially suffers from problems of the low power of stationarity tests applied to relatively short series and the ignorance of dependence among regional house markets. Therefore, we conduct panel data stationarity tests which are robust to cross-sectional dependence and have greater power than univariate tests. While this time it is inflation and income that have the same order of integration as house price, they are not cointegrated with it, even if combined with the aggregate stock index. It appears that the real estate prices take long swings from their fundamental value and it can take decades before they revert to it.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 882, Politickych veznu 7, 111 21 Praha 1|
Phone: (+420) 224 005 123
Fax: (+420) 224 005 333
Web page: http://www.cerge-ei.cz
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp338, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
- Pedroni, Peter, 2004.
"Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
- Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
- Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005.
"Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions,"
NBER Working Papers
11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
- Charles P. Himmelberg & Christopher J. Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Petr Zemcik & Vyacheslav Mikhed, 2007. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," ERES eres2007_128, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007.
"A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
- repec:arz:wpaper:eres2007-128 is not listed on IDEAS
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, December.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Cointegration Tests of Present Value Models with a Time-Varying Discount Factor," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 17-31, Jan.-Marc.
- Pedroni, Peter, 1999.
" Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
- Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
- Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jana Koudelkova)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.