IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cer/papers/wp338.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Vyacheslav Mikhed
  • Petr Zemcik

Abstract

We employ recently developed cross-sectionally robust panel data tests for unit roots and cointegration to find whether house prices reflect house-related earnings. We use U.S. data for Metropolitan Statistical Areas, with house price measured by the weighted-repeated-sales index, and cash flows either by market tenant rents or estimates of a fair market rent. In our full sample periods, an error-correction model is not appropriate, i.e. there is a bubble. We then combine overlapping ten-year periods, price-rent ratios, and the panel data tests to construct a bubble indicator. The indicator is high for the late 1980s, early 1990s and since the late 1990s for both panels. Finally, evidence based on panel data Granger causality tests suggests that house price changes are helpful in predicting changes in rents and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp338, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp338
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp338.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Clark, Todd E., 1995. "Rents and prices of housing across areas of the United States. A cross-section examination of the present value model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 237-247, April.
    3. Margaret Hwang Smith & Gary Smith, 2006. "Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 1-68.
    4. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    7. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, September.
    8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. Christophe Hurlin, 2004. "Testing Granger causality in Heterogeneous panel data models with fixed coefficients," Post-Print halshs-00257395, HAL.
    11. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    12. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2010. "The Performance of Panel Cointegration Methods: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 182-223, April.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    16. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    18. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    19. Sean D. Campbell & Morris A. Davis & Joshua H. Gallin & Robert F. Martin, 2006. "A trend and variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio in housing markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    21. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    22. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhi, Tianhao & Li, Zhongfei & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Wei, Lijian & Sornette, Didier, 2019. "Is there a housing bubble in China?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 120-132.
    2. Christophe Andr頍 & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Testing for persistence in housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in 16 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2127-2138, June.
    3. Tianhao Zhi & Zhongfei Li & Zhiqiang Jiang & Lijian Wei & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Is there a housing bubble in China," Papers 1801.03678, arXiv.org.
    4. Phuong Lan Le & Anh Tuan Do & Anh Ngoc Pham, 2023. "What Influenced Hanoi’s Apartment Price Bubble between 2010 and 2021?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Галенкова А.Д.* & Мариев О.С.** & Никитин М.В.*** & Юнусова И.М.****, 2019. "Эконометрическое Исследование Пузырей На Рынках Недвижимости России," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(4), pages 43-56, октябрь.
    6. Kholodilin Konstantin A. & Menz Jan-Oliver & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2010. "What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(1), pages 59-76, February.
    7. Philipp Klotz & Tsoyu Calvin Lin & Shih-Hsun Hsu, 2013. "Property Bubbles and the Driving Forces in the PIGS Countries," ERES eres2013_144, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    8. Marcelo M. de Oliveira & Alexandre C. L. Almeida, 2014. "Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market," Papers 1401.7615, arXiv.org.
    9. Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009. "Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
    10. Darrell Jiajie Tay & Chung-I Chou & Sai-Ping Li & Shang You Tee & Siew Ann Cheong, 2016. "Bubbles Are Departures from Equilibrium Housing Markets: Evidence from Singapore and Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-13, November.
    11. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
    12. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Riza Emekter & Thuy Bui, 2023. "Non-linear structures, chaos, and bubbles in U.S. regional housing markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 63-93, March.
    13. J. R. Kim & K. Chung, 2014. "Regime switching and the (in)stability of the price-rent relationship: evidence from the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(33), pages 4041-4052, November.
    14. Kim, Jan R. & Lim, Gieyoung, 2016. "Fundamentals and rational bubbles in the Korean housing market: A modified present-value approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 174-181.
    15. Christian Tutin, 2010. "Qu'est-il arrivé aux marchés du logement ?," Post-Print hal-01811775, HAL.
    16. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    17. Esposti, Roberto, 2008. "Why Should Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth Converge? Evidence from Italian Regions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43955, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemčík, 2009. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 366-386, May.
    2. Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009. "Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
    3. Petr Zemcik, 2009. "Housing Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: Is There a Bubble in the Czech Republic?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp390, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 358-364.
    5. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    6. Kholodilin Konstantin A. & Menz Jan-Oliver & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2010. "What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(1), pages 59-76, February.
    7. Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Energy consumption, output and trade in South America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 476-488.
    8. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Liddle, Brantley & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I., 2018. "The impact of international trade on CO2 emissions in oil exporting countries: Territory vs consumption emissions accounting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 343-350.
    9. Sung, Bongsuk, 2015. "Public policy supports and export performance of bioenergy technologies: A dynamic panel approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 477-495.
    10. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Bulut, Cihan & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2016. "Do population age groups matter in the energy use of the oil-exporting countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 82-99.
    11. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Working Paper Series 1010, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Religiosity and income: a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2922-2938, June.
    13. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.
    14. Sung, Bongsuk & Song, Woo-Yong, 2014. "How government policies affect the export dynamics of renewable energy technologies: A subsectoral analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 843-859.
    15. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Post-Print halshs-01318131, HAL.
    17. Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "The importance of energy quality in energy intensive manufacturing: Evidence from panel cointegration and panel FMOLS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1819-1825.
    18. Rajesh Sharma & Samaresh Bardhan, 2017. "Finance growth nexus across Indian states: evidences from panel cointegration and causality tests," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 1-20, February.
    19. Ferreira, Cândida, 2020. "Globalisation and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 187-236.
    20. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Jing, 2015. "Cointegration of matched home purchases and rental price indexes — Evidence from Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 80-88.
    21. Edmore Mahembe & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo, 2019. "Foreign aid, poverty and economic growth in developing countries: A dynamic panel data causality analysis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1626321-162, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; panel data; unit root; bubble; house prices; rents.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucie Vasiljevova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eiacacz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.