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Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?

Author

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  • Gogas, Periklis

    (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of International Economic Relations and Development)

  • Pragidis, Ioannis

    (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of International Economic Relations and Development)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the predictability power of long term risk premium over Housing prices in U.S.A. of a period of 19 years (1991-2009). For reasons that are cited clearly in the text, the interest rate risk premium is preferred over yield curve. Under a probit framework, it is tested whether recent housing pricing bust could have been predicted. We employ adaptive expectations for the formation of the agents’ short-term interest rate expectations. The ability to forecast such price changes is of great importance to investors and analysts of the housing market and for the design of financial institutions’ mortgage policy in a more prudential path.

Suggested Citation

  • Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:duthrp:2010_001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing prices; risk premium; probit; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

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