IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iaecre/v16y2010i1p1-1010.1007-s11294-009-9247-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Dionisios Chionis
  • Periklis Gogas
  • Ioannis Pragidis

Abstract

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve for the U.S. and various European countries. In this paper we use data from the European Union (EU15), from 1994:Q1 to 2008:Q3. We use the European Central Bank’s euro area yield spreads to predict European real GDP deviations from the long-run trend. We also augment the models tested with non monetary policy variables: the unemployment and a composite European stock price index. The methodology employed is a probit model of the inverse cumulative distribution function of the standard distribution using several formal forecasting and goodness of fit evaluation tests. The results show that the yield curve augmented with the composite stock index has significant forecasting power in terms of the EU15 real output. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Dionisios Chionis & Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:16:y:2010:i:1:p:1-10:10.1007/s11294-009-9247-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-009-9247-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11294-009-9247-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11294-009-9247-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    3. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Kim, Kenneth A. & Limpaphayom, Piman, 1997. "The effect of economic regimes on the relation between term structure and real activity in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 379-392.
    6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    7. Catherine Bonser-Neal & Timothy R. Morley, 1997. "Does the yield spread predict real economic activity? : a multicountry analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 82(Q III), pages 37-53.
    8. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    9. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206.
    11. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    12. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012. "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 226-237, January.
    2. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: the Role of Decomposed Term Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 101-116, January.
    3. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2015. "Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 635-645, April.
    4. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97, April.
    5. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
    6. Schock, Matthias, 2014. "Do Eurozone yield spreads predict recessions?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-532, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    7. Laine, Olli-Matti & Lindblad, Annika, 2020. "Nowcasting Finnish GDP growth using financial variables: a MIDAS approach," BoF Economics Review 4/2020, Bank of Finland.
    8. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 2-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    2. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 2-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    3. repec:kap:iaecre:v:16:y:2010:i:1:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012. "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 226-237, January.
    5. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
    6. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    8. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
    9. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    10. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    11. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
    12. Mathias Moersch & Armin Pohl, 2011. "Predicting recessions with the term spread - recent evidence from seven countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1285-1288.
    13. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
    15. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    16. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2017. "Towards an asymmetric long run equilibrium between stock market uncertainty and the yield spread. A threshold vector error correction approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 267-279.
    17. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2016. "Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 293-311.
    20. Menzie Chinn & Kavan Kucko, 2015. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 129-156, June.
    21. Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
    22. Hardouvelis, Gikas & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Yield spread; Recession; Probit; Term structure; Monetary policy; Real growth; E43; E44; E52; C53;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:16:y:2010:i:1:p:1-10:10.1007/s11294-009-9247-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.