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The effect of monetary policy on housing: a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach

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  • Carlos Vargas-Silva

Abstract

This study examines the link between monetary policy and the housing market. The analysis is conducted using impulse response functions derived from a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. The FAVAR methodology as developed by Bernanke et al. (2005) avoids the degrees of freedom problem present in standard vector autoregression (VARs) models. The estimations are conducted using 120 macroeconomic time series in monthly frequency for the period January 1959 to August 2001. Results indicate that housing starts respond negatively to monetary policy shocks. This result is consistent across regions in the United States. In the case of housing permits and mobile home shipments, the response to a monetary policy shock is positive at first, but becomes negative after a few periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on housing: a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 749-752.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:15:y:2008:i:10:p:749-752
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850600770947
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    Cited by:

    1. Leu, Shawn C.-Y. & Robertson, Mari L., 2021. "Mortgage credit volumes and monetary policy after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Sigal Ribon, 2011. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Inflation: A Factor Augmented VAR Approach using disaggregated data," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2011.12, Bank of Israel.
    3. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    4. John McDonald & Houston Stokes, 2013. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 437-451, April.
    5. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    6. Takao Fujii & Kazuki Hiraga & Masafumi Kozuka, 2012. "Analyses of Public Investment Shock in Japan: Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-006, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    7. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Are government interventions effective in regulating China's house prices?," Discussion Papers 1427, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    8. Geoffrey M. Ngene & Daniel P. Sohn & M. Kabir Hassan, 2017. "Time-Varying and Spatial Herding Behavior in the US Housing Market: Evidence from Direct Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 482-514, May.
    9. Kyle E. Binder & Mohsen Pourahmadi & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "The role of temporal dependence in factor selection and forecasting oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1185-1223, March.
    10. Jing-Ping Li & Jiao-Jiao Fan & Chi-Wei Su & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2017. "Investment coordinates in the context of housing and stock markets nexus," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1455-1463, November.
    11. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    12. Kazi, Irfan Akbar & Wagan, Hakimzadi & Akbar, Farhan, 2013. "The changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 90-116.
    13. Todd H. Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2009. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Using Us State Level," Working Papers 09-04, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    14. Fujii, Takao & Hiraga, Kazuki & Kozuka, Masafumi, 2013. "Effects of public investment on sectoral private investment: A factor augmented VAR approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 35-47.
    15. Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2016. "Endogenous UK Housing Cycles and the Risk Premium: Understanding the Next Housing Crisis," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2016-02, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    16. Chandler Lutz, 2015. "The international impact of US unconventional monetary policy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 955-959, August.
    17. Charles Rahal,, 2016. "Housing markets and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 67-80.
    18. Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 325-335, December.
    19. Carolina Cosculluela-Mart󹑺 & Rafael Flores de Frutos, 2013. "Housing investment in Spain: has it been the main engine of growth?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(14), pages 1835-1843, May.

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