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The effect of monetary policy on housing: a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach

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  • Carlos Vargas-Silva

Abstract

This study examines the link between monetary policy and the housing market. The analysis is conducted using impulse response functions derived from a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. The FAVAR methodology as developed by Bernanke et al. (2005) avoids the degrees of freedom problem present in standard vector autoregression (VARs) models. The estimations are conducted using 120 macroeconomic time series in monthly frequency for the period January 1959 to August 2001. Results indicate that housing starts respond negatively to monetary policy shocks. This result is consistent across regions in the United States. In the case of housing permits and mobile home shipments, the response to a monetary policy shock is positive at first, but becomes negative after a few periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on housing: a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 749-752.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:15:y:2008:i:10:p:749-752
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850600770947
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-589, August.
    4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    5. Richard K. Green, 1997. "Follow the Leader: How Changes in Residential and Non-residential Investment Predict Changes in GDP," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-270.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    2. John McDonald & Houston Stokes, 2013. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 437-451, April.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing sector dynamics in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    5. Todd H. Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2009. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Using Us State Level," Working Papers 09-04, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    6. Takao Fujii & Kazuki Hiraga & Masafumi Kozuka, 2012. "Analyses of Public Investment Shock in Japan: Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-006, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    7. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Are government interventions effective in regulating China fs house prices?," Discussion Papers 1427, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    8. Fujii, Takao & Hiraga, Kazuki & Kozuka, Masafumi, 2013. "Effects of public investment on sectoral private investment: A factor augmented VAR approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 35-47.
    9. Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2016. "Endogenous UK Housing Cycles and the Risk Premium: Understanding the Next Housing Crisis," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    10. Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 325-335, December.
    11. Geoffrey M. Ngene & Daniel P. Sohn & M. Kabir Hassan, 2017. "Time-Varying and Spatial Herding Behavior in the US Housing Market: Evidence from Direct Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 482-514, May.
    12. Kazi, Irfan Akbar & Wagan, Hakimzadi & Akbar, Farhan, 2013. "The changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 90-116.
    13. Charles Rahal,, 2016. "Housing markets and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 67-80.
    14. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.

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