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Is There a Swiss Price Puzzle?

  • Daniel Kaufmann
  • Sarah M. Lein

This paper estimates the response of consumer prices to a monetary policy shock in Switzerland. We find that there is no evidence of a price puzzle at the aggregate level. This is because our factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) avoids misspecification by including more information than a traditional VAR. However, the response is still delayed by at least four quarters, partly because there is a price puzzle in some sectors. In particular, rents tend to rise after a monetary policy tightening because there are legal provisions in Switzerland which link them to interest rates. But durable goods prices also rise, which is consistent with the existence of a cost channel of monetary policy.

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Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 148 (2012)
Issue (Month): I (March)
Pages: 57-75

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Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2012-i-3
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  1. Giordani, Paolo, 2000. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 414, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2000.
  2. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1262-1283, December.
  3. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
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  5. Henzel, Steffen & Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric, 2009. "The price puzzle revisited: Can the cost channel explain a rise in inflation after a monetary policy shock?," Munich Reprints in Economics 19421, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  6. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2008. "Modeling Monetary Transmission in Switzerland with a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(II), pages 197-246, June.
  7. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts with a Large Number of Predictor," Econometrics 0408006, EconWPA.
  8. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
  14. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Mathias Hoffmann & Andreas Schabert, 2004. "Inflation Dynamics and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  15. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, pages 35-58.
  16. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "'Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy' : by Christopher Sims," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1001-1011, June.
  17. Daniel Kaufmann, 2008. "Price-Setting Behaviour in Switzerland Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers 2008-15, Swiss National Bank.
  18. Rabanal, Pau, 2007. "Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 906-937, March.
  19. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  20. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
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