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Analyses of Public Investment Shock in Japan: Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach

  • Takao Fujii

    (Kobe University)

  • Kazuki Hiraga

    (Keio University)

  • Masafumi Kozuka

    (University of Marketing and Department Science)

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    In this study, we investigate the effect of a positive public investment shock on Japan's private consumption, real wages, and real effective exchange rate using a factor augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model applied to a rich dataset. We demonstrate that private consumption increases, confirming previous literature involving structural VAR analysis of fiscal policy, but the real effective exchange rate appreciates. Our results resolve one of the two fiscal policy puzzles, which consist of qualitative different results among theory and empirical about private consumption and real effective exchange rate, discussed, and we explain them by using the new open economy macroeconomics model with rule of thumb consumers.

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    File URL: http://ies.keio.ac.jp/old_project/old/gcoe-econbus/pdf/dp/DP2012-006.pdf
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    Paper provided by Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program in its series Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series with number 2012-006.

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    Length: 16 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:kei:dpaper:2012-006
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    Web page: http://ies.keio.ac.jp/old_project/old/gcoe-econbus/
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    1. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2003. "Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?," Staff Working Papers 03-43, Bank of Canada.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June.
    4. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2002. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Economics Working Papers 911, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2005.
    5. Ludger Linnemann & Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Productive Government Expenditure in Monetary Business Cycle Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-053/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Junji Yamada, 2011. "Stock Price Targeting and Fiscal Deficit in Japan: Why Did the Fiscal Deficit Increase . during Japan's Lost Decades?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-819, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    8. Florin Bilbiie, 2009. "Nonseparable Preferences, Fiscal Policy Puzzles, and Inferior Goods," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00622869, HAL.
    9. Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on housing: a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 749-752.
    10. Linnemann, Ludger, 2006. "The Effect of Government Spending on Private Consumption: A Puzzle?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1715-1735, October.
    11. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2010. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate and Traded Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 437-461, 05.
    12. Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 271, Econometric Society.
    13. Florin Bilbiie, 2011. "Non-Separable Preferences, Frisch Labor Supply and the Consumption Multiplier of Government Spending: One Solution to a Fiscal Policy Puzzle," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00622872, HAL.
    14. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    15. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    16. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2010. "Fiscal Foresight and the Effects of Goverment Spending," CEPR Discussion Papers 7840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Emmanuel Ziramba, 2010. "The Effect Of Defense Spending On Us Output: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 135-147.
    18. Laganà, Gianluca & Sgro, Pasquale Michael, 2011. "A factor-augmented VAR approach: The effect of a rise in the US personal income tax rate on the US and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1163-1169, May.
    19. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the US Trade Deficit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 363-397, December.
    20. Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 128, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Masahiko Shibamoto, 2007. "An Analysis Of Monetary Policy Shocks In Japan: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 58(4), pages 484-503.
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