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A Pitfall with DSGE-Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers

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  • Fève, P.
  • Matheron, J.
  • Sahuc, J.G.

Abstract

This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium context. We stress a potential source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability between private consumption and government expenditures and endogenous government expenditures. Due to cross-equation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and, consequently, the long-run GSM. An estimated version of our model with US postwar data shows that this bias matters quantitatively. The results prove to be robust to a number of perturbations.

Suggested Citation

  • Fève, P. & Matheron, J. & Sahuc, J.G., 2012. "A Pitfall with DSGE-Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," Working papers 379, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:379
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    Keywords

    DSGE models; Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability; Government spending rules; Multiplier.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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