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On the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier in the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Fève
  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article addresses the existence of a wide range of estimated government spending multipliers in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Our estimation results and counter-factual exercises provide evidence that omitting the interactions of key ingredients at the estimation stage (such as Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability between private consumption and government expenditures, endogenous government spending policy, and general habits in consumption) paves the way for potentially large biases. We argue that uncertainty on the quantitative assessments of fiscal programmes could partly originate from these biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Fève & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2015. "On the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier in the Euro Area," Post-Print hal-01612703, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01612703
    DOI: 10.1093/oep/gpv025
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Shu-Ling, 2021. "Fiscal stimulus in a high-debt economy? A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 118-135.
    2. Albertini, Julien & Auray, Stéphane & Bouakez, Hafedh & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2021. "Taking off into the wind: Unemployment risk and state-Dependent government spending multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 990-1007.
    3. Kurt Kratena & Gerhard Streicher, 2017. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers and Spillovers in a Multi-Regional Macroeconomic Input-Output Model," WIFO Working Papers 540, WIFO.
    4. Campagne, Benoît & Poissonnier, Aurélien, 2018. "Structural reforms in DSGE models: Output gains but welfare losses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 397-421.
    5. İrem Zeyneloğlu & Gilbert Koenig, 2016. "Recent Economic Developments and the Implications for Fiscal Policy in Open Economy Macroeconomics," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 126(6), pages 1023-1056.
    6. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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