On the interaction between market and credit risk: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach
The aim of the paper is to understand the interaction between market and credit risk. Using a comprehensive set of Italian data, we apply a factor model to identify the common sources of risk driving fluctuations in the real and financial sectors. The common latent factors are then inserted in a VAR framework via a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) approach to analyse the role of risk interactions with monetary policy shocks. We find that the impact of a restrictive monetary policy shock on credit risk is amplified when considering the feedback effect deriving from macroeconomic and equity market risk. Thus, neglecting dynamic interactions among risks may lead to biased estimates of the overall risk measure. The approach provides a framework for modelling macro and financial feedback dynamics, shedding some light on the complex interdependence between the financial sector and the real economy.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2010|
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- Moench, Emanuel, 2008.
"Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 26-43, September.
- Mönch, Emanuel, 2005. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: a no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Working Paper Series 0544, European Central Bank.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Evaluating latent and observed factors in macroeconomics and finance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 507-537.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "Evaluating Latent and Observed Factors in Macroeconomics and Financ," Econometrics 0408007, EconWPA.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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