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Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model

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  • Chevallier, Julien

Abstract

This article assesses the transmission of international shocks to EUA spot, EUA futures, and CER futures carbon prices using a broad dataset that includes 115 macroeconomic, financial and commodities indicators with daily frequency from April 4, 2008 to January 25, 2010 totalling 463 observations. The framework adopted is a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model with latent factors extracted from the dataset, as proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005). The main results can be summarized as follows. First, based on impulse responses, we show that carbon prices tend to respond negatively (between −0.2 and −1.2 standard deviation) to an exogenous shock that reduces global economic indicators by one standard deviation. Second, we find evidence that the responses are heterogeneous among the different kinds of carbon prices: CER futures prices tend to react much more significantly than EUA spot and futures prices. Third, the factors explain about 50% of the total variance of all variables in the dataset. The largest contribution is accounted for by the factor correlated with commodities markets, which explains about 28% of the total variability.

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  • Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Macroeconomics, finance, commodities: Interactions with carbon markets in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 557-567.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:557-567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.06.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares & Rita Sousa, 2017. "California´s Carbon Market and Energy Prices: A Wavelet Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 13/2017, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Han, Meng & Ding, Lili & Zhao, Xin & Kang, Wanglin, 2019. "Forecasting carbon prices in the Shenzhen market, China: The role of mixed-frequency factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 69-76.
    3. Chune Young Chung & Minkyu Jeong & Jason Young, 2018. "The Price Determinants of the EU Allowance in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    4. Yu, Jongmin & Mallory, Mindy L., 2014. "Exchange rate effect on carbon credit price via energy markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 145-161.
    5. Chunguang Sheng & Guangyu Wang & Yude Geng & Lirong Chen, 2020. "The Correlation Analysis of Futures Pricing Mechanism in China’s Carbon Financial Market," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(18), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Wen, Fenghua & Wu, Nan & Gong, Xu, 2020. "China's carbon emissions trading and stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Wen, Xiaoqian & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can energy commodity futures add to the value of carbon assets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 194-206.
    9. Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Variance risk-premia in CO2 markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 598-605.
    10. Libo Yin & Liyan Han, 2016. "Macroeconomic impacts on commodity prices: China vs. the United States," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 489-500, March.
    11. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Nonparametric modeling of carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1267-1282.
    12. Frank Venmans, 2015. "Capital market response to emission allowance prices: a multivariate GARCH approach," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(4), pages 577-620, October.
    13. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Muckley, Cal, 2014. "A microstructure analysis of the carbon finance market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-234.
    14. Julien Chevallier, 2013. "Carbon trading: past, present and future," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 21, pages 471-489, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FAVAR; Carbon price; Macroeconomics; Finance; Commodities; Factor models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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