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Macroeconomic Factors and Oil Futures Prices: A Data-Rich Model

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Abstract

I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from these series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices.

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  • Zagaglia, Paolo, 2009. "Macroeconomic Factors and Oil Futures Prices: A Data-Rich Model," Research Papers in Economics 2009:7, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2009_0007
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    Keywords

    Crude Oil; Futures Markets; Factor Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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