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Gauging Housing Supply in Canada: A Stock Approach

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Abstract

This paper estimates Canada’s housing stock to gauge the supply-side component of the recent exuberance in the Canadian housing sector. The paper adds to the current related literature by focusing on housing units and reconstructing housing stock and households series. An error correction model is estimated at the provincial level over the period 1980-2013 to estimate a measure of housing stock desequilibrium. The model predicts an excess supply in the order of ½ percent above the housing stock level consistent with fundamentals as of 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Reynaud, 2015. "Gauging Housing Supply in Canada: A Stock Approach," IMF Working Papers 2015/128, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/128
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    1. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "United States: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/214, International Monetary Fund.
    3. David Dupuis & Yi Zheng, 2010. "A Model of Housing Stock for Canada," Staff Working Papers 10-19, Bank of Canada.
    4. Frédérick Demers, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Housing Investment: The Case of Canada," Staff Working Papers 05-41, Bank of Canada.
    5. Ball, Michael & Meen, Geoffrey & Nygaard, Christian, 2010. "Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 255-268, December.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Canada: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/041, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada.
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