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Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación

  • Diego Bastourre
  • Luis Casanova
  • Alejo Espora

En los últimos años el Tipo de cambio real (TCR) ha pasado a cobrar relevancia en la literatura sobre crecimiento en función de diversos trabajos empíricos que avanzaron en detectar la existencia de una correlación positiva entre la expansión económica y el desalineamiento del TCR (medido de maneras alternativas). Dado este panorama general, el presente documento tiene dos objetivos centrales. En primer término, examinar críticamente el estado de la discusión teórica y la evidencia empírica internacional respecto de la relación entre crecimiento y TCR. El segundo es realizar una revisión de los principales trabajos de investigación orientados a examinar los canales por los cuales puede operar dicha relación. Estos canales se centran sucintamente en: i) el impulso que un tipo de cambio real competitivo y estable genera en los sectores exportadores; ii) los incentivos a la diversificación productiva y comercial, fenómeno que presupone que el TCR puede jugar un papel importante en procesos de cambio estructural; y iii) su impacto en la inversión agregada y su asignación sectorial. El documento incluye, además, resultados preliminares que avalan lo encontrado en buena parte de la literatura, en torno a la existencia de un vínculo estrecho entre tipo de cambio y crecimiento en economías emergentes, especialmente asiáticas y en menor medida latinoamericanas, detectándose en todos los casos ciertos condicionantes para que la relación opere en la dirección esperada.

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File URL: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab/doc82.pdf
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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its series Department of Economics, Working Papers with number 082.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:082
Contact details of provider: Postal: Calle 48 No555 - La Plata (1900)
Phone: 21- 1466
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Web page: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab.php

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