IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación

  • Diego Bastourre
  • Luis Casanova
  • Alejo Espora

En los últimos años el Tipo de cambio real (TCR) ha pasado a cobrar relevancia en la literatura sobre crecimiento en función de diversos trabajos empíricos que avanzaron en detectar la existencia de una correlación positiva entre la expansión económica y el desalineamiento del TCR (medido de maneras alternativas). Dado este panorama general, el presente documento tiene dos objetivos centrales. En primer término, examinar críticamente el estado de la discusión teórica y la evidencia empírica internacional respecto de la relación entre crecimiento y TCR. El segundo es realizar una revisión de los principales trabajos de investigación orientados a examinar los canales por los cuales puede operar dicha relación. Estos canales se centran sucintamente en: i) el impulso que un tipo de cambio real competitivo y estable genera en los sectores exportadores; ii) los incentivos a la diversificación productiva y comercial, fenómeno que presupone que el TCR puede jugar un papel importante en procesos de cambio estructural; y iii) su impacto en la inversión agregada y su asignación sectorial. El documento incluye, además, resultados preliminares que avalan lo encontrado en buena parte de la literatura, en torno a la existencia de un vínculo estrecho entre tipo de cambio y crecimiento en economías emergentes, especialmente asiáticas y en menor medida latinoamericanas, detectándose en todos los casos ciertos condicionantes para que la relación opere en la dirección esperada.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab/doc82.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its series Department of Economics, Working Papers with number 082.

as
in new window

Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:082
Contact details of provider: Postal: Calle 48 No555 - La Plata (1900)
Phone: 21- 1466
Fax: 54-21-25-9536
Web page: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab.php
More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "What You Export Matters," NBER Working Papers 11905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 460-485, October.
  3. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  4. Cadot, Olivier & Carrère, Céline & Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa, 2007. "Export Diversification: What’s behind the Hump?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November.
  6. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Haddad, Mona & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2010. "Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 20, pages 1-5, June.
  8. Hausmann, Ricardo & Pritchett, Lant & Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," Working Paper Series rwp04-030, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  9. Berthou, Antoine, 2008. "An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports," Working Paper Series 0920, European Central Bank.
  10. Marquering, W. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2000. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Discussion Paper 2000-78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  11. Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  12. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Are Nonconvexities Important for Understanding Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 97-103, May.
  13. Enrique Alberola, 2005. "Misalignment, Liabilities Dollarization And Exchange Rate Adjustment In Latin America," International Finance 0507005, EconWPA.
  14. Lone Christiansen & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "External Balance in Low-Income Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 265-322 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Paulo Gala & Marcos Rocha, 2011. "Real exchange rates,domestic and foreign savings: the missing link," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 76, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  16. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," NBER Working Papers 11528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Havrylyshyn, Oli, 1990. "Trade Policy and Productivity Gains in Developing Countries: A Survey of the Literature," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
  18. Prashanth Mahagaonkar & Rainer Schweickert & Aditya S. Chavali, 2009. "Sectoral R&D Intensity and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Panel Study for OECD Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1531, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  19. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
  20. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2008. "Export surges : the oower of a competitive currency," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4750, The World Bank.
  21. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "Cross-country studies of growth and policy : methodological, conceptual, and statistical problems," Policy Research Working Paper Series 608, The World Bank.
  22. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  23. repec:dgr:kubcen:200078 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Methodological Comparison of Beers and Feers," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited; The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
  28. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  29. Ariel Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2004. "Investment Prices and Exchange Rates: Some Basic Facts," NBER Working Papers 10238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 11521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Jiangyan Yu & James P Walsh, 2010. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment; A Sectoral and Institutional Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/187, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April.
  33. Simon Johnson & Jonathan D. Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," NBER Working Papers 13120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Arslan Razmi & Martin Rapetti & Peter Skott, 2009. "The Real Exchange Rate as an Instrument of Development Policy," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-07, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  35. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile & Sebastián Rovira, 2010. "Structural change and the BOP-constraint: why did Latin America fail to converge?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 389-411, March.
  36. Lederman, Daniel & Maloney, William F., 2003. "Trade structure and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3025, The World Bank.
  37. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  38. Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273 Elsevier.
  39. Arvind Virmani, 2004. "Economic reforms: Policy and institutions some lessons from Indian reforms," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 121, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
  40. Romain Wacziarg, 2002. "Review of Easterly's The Elusive Quest for Growth," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 907-918, September.
  41. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  42. Bushe, Dennis M & Kravis, Irving B & Lipsey, Robert E, 1986. "Prices, Activity, and Machinery Exports: An Analysis Based on New Price Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 248-55, May.
  43. Klinger, Bailey & Lederman, Daniel, 2006. "Diversification, innovation, and imitation inside the Global Technological Frontier," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3872, The World Bank.
  44. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
  45. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
  46. Jongwanich, Juthathip, 2009. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, Misalignment, and Export Performance in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 151, Asian Development Bank.
  47. Manuel Agosin, 2007. "Export Diversification And Growth In Emerging Economies," Working Papers wp233, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  48. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  49. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  51. Serven, Luis, 2002. "Real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2823, The World Bank.
  52. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, 2000. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Business Sector Investment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0600, Econometric Society.
  53. Krugman, Paul R, 1987. "Is Free Trade Passe?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 131-44, Fall.
  54. Diego Alberto Bastourre & Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Javier Ignacio Ibarlucia, 2008. "En busca de una quimera: enfoques alternativos para el tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Argentina," Investigación Conjunta - español, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 244-312 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
  55. Addison, Douglas & Wodon, Quentin, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Private Investment, Growth, and Poverty in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 11113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diego Fernandez Felices)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.