IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/0309.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Misalignment, liabilities dollarization and exchange rate adjustment in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique Alberola

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

Exchange rates in Latin America display a large volatility, constitute a central element of the policy strategies and their evolution have an important impact on financial stability due to the dollarization of liabilities which most countries exhibit. However, assessments on equilibrium exchange rates are scarce in the region. This paper aims at both filling this gap and analysing the impact of the adjustment of the exchange rates to equilibrium on financial stability. Building on the methodology of Alberola et al (1999-2002), we show that the stock of net foreign assets and the evolution of productivity are the fundamentals underlying the behavior of the real exchange rate. Using an unobserved components methodology in a cointegration framework, a time varying equilibrium real exchange rate is derived, and deviations from this equilibrium provide an estimate of the degree of multilateral misalignment. The results uncover among other things the large overvaluation of the Argentinean peso in 2001, which was only partially explained by the estimated dollar overvaluation. The adjustment of exchange rates in 2002 corrected this and, to a lesser extent, other misalignments. The final part of the paper addresses the impact of liability dollarization on the adjustment of exchange rates. It is argued that the real exchange rate will tend to overshoot its equilibrium level, due to the need to foster higher current account surplus in the aftermath of depreciation to make up for to the increase in liabilities. An adjustment to account for this effect is performed on the previous results. This overshooting, when coupled with sudden stops of capitals, may help explaining the higher volatility of real exchange rates in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Alberola, 2003. "Misalignment, liabilities dollarization and exchange rate adjustment in Latin America," Working Papers 0309, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0309
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/03/Fic/dt0309e.pdf
    File Function: First version, August 2003
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Olivier Jeanne & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The International Lender of Last Resort. How Large Is Large Enough?," NBER Chapters,in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 89-124 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Enrique Alberola & Susana Garcia-Cervero & Humberto López & Angel Ubide, 2005. "Quo vadis Euro?," International Finance 0507004, EconWPA.
    5. Enrique Alberola & Humberto López & Luis Servén, 2004. "Tango with the gringo: the hard peg and real misalign ment in Argentina," Working Papers 0405, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    6. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    7. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    9. Tamim Bayoumi & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "Deviations of Exchange Rates from Purchasing Power Parity: A Story Featuring Two Monetary Unions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Lahrèche-Révil, Amina & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 12-32, June.
    2. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On Currency Misalignments within the Euro Area," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 35-48, February.
    3. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina lahrèche-Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Is Asia Responsible For Exchange Rate Misalignments Within The G20?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 46-61, February.
    4. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    5. Cécile Couharde & Anne-Laure Delatte & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon & Florian Morvillier, 2017. "EQCHANGE: A World Database on Actual and Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rates," Working Papers 2017-14, CEPII research center.
    6. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2015. "Current Account and Reer Misalignments in Central Eastern EU Countries: an Update Using the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 20, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. repec:ecr:col070:43449 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    9. Damyana Bakardzhieva & Russell Krueger & Bassem Kamar & Jean-Etienne Carlotti, 2011. "Essay on Establishing Conversion Values for the Planned Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Currency Union," Working Papers 632, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    10. Méjean, Isabelle, 2008. "Can firms' location decisions counteract the Balassa-Samuelson effect?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 139-154, December.
    11. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Eliane Araújo, 2011. "The trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in open emerging economies: the case of Brazil," Working Papers 0111, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    12. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
    13. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Post-Print halshs-00276402, HAL.
    14. Audrey Sallenave, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio, 2006. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rates: a Panel Data Approach for Advanced and Emerging Economies," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 108, pages 59-81.
    16. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Le yuan et le G20," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 127-146.
    17. Bassem M Kamar & Jean-Etienne Carlotti & Russell C Krueger, 2009. "Establishing Conversion Values for New Currency Unions; Method and Application to the planned Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/184, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.
    19. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201510131420 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. VALDIVIA, Fernando Zarzosa, 2010. "Determinants of the structural real exchange rates and economic structures in Argentina, Chile and Mexico," Working Papers 2010025, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Liabilities dollarization; Overshooting;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España). General contact details of provider: http://www.bde.es/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.