Nominal and Real Exchange Rate Models in South Africa: How Robust are they?
This paper addresses difficulties in modelling exchange rates in South Africa. Real exchange rate models of earlier research seem to be sensitive to the sample period considered, alternative variable definition, data frequency and estimation methods. Alternative exchange rate models proposed in this paper including the stock-flow approach and variants of the monetary model are not fully robust to data frequency and alternative estimation periods, either. Nevertheless, adding openness to the stock-flow approach and augmenting the monetary model with share prices and the country risk premium improves significantly the fit of the models around the large (nominal and real) depreciation episodes of 2002 and 2008. Interestingly, real commodity prices do not help explain the large depreciations. While these models do a reasonably good job in-sample, their out-of-sample forecasting properties remain poor.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
- Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, â€œIns,â€ â€œOuts,â€ and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2007.
"On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate,"
Working Paper Series
rwp07-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On The Rand: Determinants Of The South African Exchange Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 425-441, 09.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003.
"Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
236, Central Bank of Chile.
- Mtonga, Elvis, 2006. "The real exchange rate of the rand and competitiveness of South Africa's trade," MPRA Paper 1192, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Odedokun, M. O., 1997. "The monetary approach to analysing floating exchange rate behaviour in developing countries: Evidence from sub-Saharan African countries, 1986-1992," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 463-481, April.
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003.
"The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
14/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, 04.
- Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald McDonald, 2004. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," Macroeconomics 0401013, EconWPA.
- Egert, Balazs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Lahreche-Revil, Amina, 2006.
"Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: Comparing apples with oranges?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3393-3406, December.
- Balazs Egert & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Small Open OECD and Transition Economies: Comparing Apples with Oranges?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1928, CESifo Group Munich.
- Bal??zs ??gert & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Amina Lahr??che-R??vil, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Small Open OECD and Transition Economies: Comparing Apples with Oranges?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp859, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992.
"The Power of Cointegration Tests,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Kenneth W. Clements & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1980.
"Exchange Rates, Money and Relative Prices: The Dollar-Pound in the 1920's,"
NBER Working Papers
0429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clements, Kenneth W. & Frenkel, Jacob A., 1980. "Exchange rates, money, and relative prices: The dollar-pound in the 1920s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 249-262, May.
- Jeannine Bailliu & Ali Dib & Takashi Kano & Lawrence Schembri, 2007. "Multilateral Adjustment and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case of Three Commodity Currencies," Staff Working Papers 07-41, Bank of Canada.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2007.
"Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
915, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- PÃ¤r Ã–sterholm & Erik Hjalmarsson, 2007. "Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated," IMF Working Papers 07/141, International Monetary Fund.
- David Gruen & Tro Kortian, 1996. "Why Does the Australian Dollar Move so Closely with the Terms of Trade?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9601, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Hamid Faruqee, 1995.
"Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
- Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate; A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald Macdonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004.
"Estimation Of The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate For South Africa,"
South African Journal of Economics,
Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 282-304, 06.
- Ronald MacDonald & Luca A Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund.
- Simon J. Broome & Morley, B., 2003. "Stock Prices and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: An Empirical Investigation," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1321103.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
- Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Why the Euro will be Strong: an Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1997-18, CEPII research center.
- Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-245, April.
- Enrique Alberola & Susana Garcia-Cervero & Humberto López & Angel Ubide, 2005. "Quo vadis Euro?," International Finance 0507004, EconWPA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3853. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.