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The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets

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  • Balázs Égert

    () (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Evžen Kočenda

Abstract

We employ two-stage empirical strategy to analyze the impact of macroeconomic news and central bank communication on the exchange rates of three Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies against the euro. First we estimate the nominal equilibrium exchange rate based on a monetary model. Second, we employ a high-frequency GARCH model to estimate the effects of the news and communication along with the estimated exchange rate misalignment on exchange rate as well as its volatility. Analysis is performed during the pre-crisis (2004–2007) and crisis (2008–2009) periods. CEE currencies react to macroeconomic news during both periods in an intuitive manner that corresponds to exchange rate-related theories. Responsiveness of the currencies to central bank verbal interventions becomes important only during the crisis period, though.
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  • Balázs Égert & Evžen Kočenda, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Post-Print hal-01385932, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01385932
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-univ-paris10.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01385932
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrmann, Michael & Osbat, Chiara & Stráský, Jan & Uusküla, Lenno, 2014. "The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 319-339.
    2. repec:eee:finlet:v:21:y:2017:i:c:p:140-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2014. "Does central bank transparency affect stock market volatility?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 362-377.
    4. Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2015. "Eloquence is The Key – the Impact of Monetary Policy Speeches on Exchange Rate Volatility," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(56), pages 3-18, June,.
    5. Lei, Chengyao & Lu, Zhe & Zhang, Chengsi, 2015. "News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 644-653.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2016. "Exchange Rates and Macro News in Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 5816, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Olga S. Kuznetsova & Sofiya R. Ulyanova, 2016. "The Impact Of A Central Bank’S Verbal Interventions On Stock Exchange Indices In A Resource Based Economy: The Evidence From Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 155/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. repec:pal:compes:v:59:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1057_s41294-017-0035-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2016. "Co-movements of non-Euro EU currencies with the Euro," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 376-383.
    10. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2017. "Macro news and exchange rates in the BRICS," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 140-143.
    12. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 598-609.
    13. RNuket Kirci Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Ali M. Kutan, 2016. "Real and Financial Sector Studies in Central and Eastern Europe: A Review," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 2-31, February.
    14. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2016. "From Silence to Voice: Monetary Policy, Central Bank Governance and Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1627, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P17 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Performance and Prospects

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