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The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa

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  • Balázs Égert

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper studies drivers of high-frequency (daily) dynamics of the South African rand vis-à-vis the dollar from January 2001 to July 2007. We find strong nonlinear effects of commodity prices, perceived country and emerging market risk premium and changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate on changes in daily returns of the rand-dollar exchange rate. We also identify a one-sided nonlinear mean reversion to the long-term monetary equilibrium. In addition we establish very short-lived effects on the exchange rate of selected macroeconomic surprises and central bank communication aimed at talking up the rand. L'impact des fondamentaux monétaires et de matières premières, des nouvelles macroéconomiques et de la communication de la Banque centrale sur le taux de change : Le cas de l'Afrique du Sud Ce document étudie les facteurs qui peuvent expliquer la dynamique journalière du rand sud-africain vis-à-vis du dollar sur la période allant de janvier 2001 à juillet 2007. Nous trouvons que les prix des matières premières, la perception du risque par rapport à l’Afrique du Sud et aux pays émergents et les changements du taux de change dollar-euro influencent forcément les variations des rendements journalières du taux de change du rand par rapport au dollar de manière non linéaire. Nos résultats indiquent aussi que le rand s’ajuste vers son niveau d’équilibre monétaire de manière non linéaire lorsque le taux de change du marché est plus fort que le taux de change d’équilibre. De plus, il se trouve que certaines nouvelles macroéconomiques et la communication de banque centrale visant l’appréciation du rand exercent une influence de très court terme sur le cours du rand par rapport au dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Égert, 2009. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 692, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:692-en
    DOI: 10.1787/224472688177
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    Cited by:

    1. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2012. "The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-72.
    2. Matthias Neuenkirch & Pierre Siklos, 2014. "When is Lift-Off? Evaluating Forward Guidance from the Shadow," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 819-839, November.
    3. Bernd Hayo & Ummad Mazhar, 2014. "Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement, Determinants, and Economic Effects," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 739-770, September.
    4. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
    5. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ivando Faria, 2015. "Brazilian Central Bank communication and interest rate expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 25-44, July.
    6. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista & Jianxin Wang & Minxian Yang, 2014. "Commodity Price, Carry Trade, and the Volatility and Liquidity of Asian Currencies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 811-833, June.
    7. Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoategui-Zapata, 2019. "Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria y la credibilidad sobre las expectativas de inflación: evidencia para Colombia," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 38(67), pages 73-94, February.
    8. Rafik Nazarian & Ashkan Amiri, 2014. "Asymmetry of the Oil Price Pass Through to Inflation in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 457-464.
    9. Lee, Chin & Law, Chee-Hong, 2013. "The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 45185, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Afrique du Sud; central bank communication; commodity prices; communication de la Banque centrale; exchange rates; macroeconomic news; modèle monétaire; monetary model; non-linéarité; nonlinearity; nouvelles macroéconomiques; prix des commodités; South Africa; taux de change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P17 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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