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When Is Lift-Off? Evaluating Forward Guidance From The Shadow

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  • M. Neuenkirch, P. Siklos

    (LCERPA)

Abstract

Monetary policy decisions are typically taken after a committee has deliberated and voted on a proposal. However, there are well-known risks associated with committee-based decisions. In this paper we examine the record of the shadow Monetary Policy Council in Canada. Given the structure of the committee, how decision-making takes place, as well as the voting arrangements, the MPC does not face the same information cascades and group polarization risks faced by actual decision-makers in central bank monetary policy councils. We find a considerable diversity of opinion about the recommended future path of interest rates inside the MPC. Beginning with the explicit forward guidance provided by the Bank of Canada market determined forward rates diverge considerably from the recommendations implied by the MPC. There is little evidence that the Bank and the MPC coordinate their future views about the interest rate path. However, it is difficult to explain the basis on which median voter inside the MPC, as well as doves and hawks on the committee, change their views about future changes in policy rates. This implies that there remain challenges in understanding the evolution of future interest rate paths over time.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Neuenkirch, P. Siklos, 2014. "When Is Lift-Off? Evaluating Forward Guidance From The Shadow," LCERPA Working Papers wm0066, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:wm0066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "What's in a second opinion? Shadowing the ECB and the Bank of England," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 135-148.
    2. Bernd Hayo & Ummad Mazhar, 2014. "Monetary Policy Committee Transparency: Measurement, Determinants, and Economic Effects," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 739-770, September.
    3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    4. Aleš Bulíř & Martin Čihák & David-Jan Jansen, 2013. "What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 125-145, February.
    5. Pierre L. Siklos & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2015. "How Monetary Policy Is Made: Two Canadian Tales," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(1), pages 225-250, January.
    6. Balázs Égert, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 655-677, November.
    7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    8. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Sean Holly, 2010. "Rational Partisan Theory, Uncertainty, And Spatial Voting: Evidence For The Bank Of England'S Mpc," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 151-179, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra, 2016. "Forward Guidance under Disagreement - Evidence from the Fed’s dot projections," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145768, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Pierre L. Siklos & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2015. "How Monetary Policy Is Made: Two Canadian Tales," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(1), pages 225-250, January.
    3. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2017. "Forward Guidance, Pros, Cons and Credibility," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 523-541.
    4. Pierre Siklos & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2014. "Good Governance of Monetary Policy in Canada: Lessons from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Shadow Council," e-briefs 188, C.D. Howe Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank of Canada; central bank communication; committee behaviour; monetary policy committees; shadow councils; Taylor rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other

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