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Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication

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  • Neuenkirch, Matthias

Abstract

In this paper, we study the influence of central bank transparency and informal central bank communication on the formation of money market expectations. The sample covers nine major central banks from January 1999 to July 2007. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias in money market expectations and dampens their variation. Second, informal communications help manage financial market expectations by reducing the variation of expectations. Third, various subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) transparency index lead to a smaller bias in expectations (in particular, evaluation of policy outcome and explanation of interest rate decisions) and to a reduction in the variation of expectations (in particular, explicit prioritization of objectives and provision of information on unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances).

Suggested Citation

  • Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-13.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:28:y:2012:i:1:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2011.07.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Frenkel & Jin-Kyu Jung & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2017. "Rationalizing the Bias in Central Banks' Interest Rate Projections," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 17-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    2. Aleš Bulíř & Martin Čihák & David-Jan Jansen, 2013. "What Drives Clarity of Central Bank Communication About Inflation?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 125-145, February.
    3. Lähner, Tom, 2015. "Inconsistent voting behavior in the FOMC," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-546, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
    5. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
    6. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2013. "How Stale Central Bank Interest Rate Projections Affect Interest Rate Uncertainty," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79861, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Allard, Julien & Catenaro, Marco & Vidal, Jean-Pierre & Wolswijk, Guido, 2013. "Central bank communication on fiscal policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C.N. & Tonzer, Lena, 2017. "Central bank transparency and cross-border banking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-30.
    9. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2014. "Stale forward guidance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 358-361.
    10. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2014. "Does central bank transparency affect stock market volatility?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 362-377.
    11. Athina Zervoyianni & Athanasios Anastasiou & Andreas Anastasiou, 2014. "Does central bank independence really matter? Re-assessing the role of the independence of monetary policy-makers in macroeconomic outcomes," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 427-473.
    12. Demiralp, Selva & Kara, Hakan & Özlü, Pınar, 2012. "Monetary policy communication in Turkey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 540-556.
    13. Carin van der Cruijsen & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2015. "How Much Does the Public Know about the ECB’s Monetary Policy? Evidence from a Survey of Dutch Households," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 169-218, December.
    14. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:597-617 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Dumiter Florin Cornel, 2012. "The Crucial Role Of Central Bank Transparency In Assessing The Monetary Policy Committee Mechanism," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 557-563, December.
    16. Bluhm, Marcel, 2015. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 181-196.
    17. Geiger, Martin & Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "When do fiscal consolidations lead to consumption booms? Lessons from a laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-20.
    18. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 598-609.
    19. Domenico Lombardi, Pierre Siklos, Samantha St. Amand, 2018. "Asset Price Spillovers From Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Global Empirical Perspective," LCERPA Working Papers 0109, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 30 Jan 2018.
    20. Luis E. Arango & Javier Pantoja & Carlos Velásquez, 2017. "Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia. A content analysis," Borradores de Economia 1024, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Stefan Eichler & Tom Lähner, 2014. "Forecast dispersion, dissenting votes, and monetary policy preferences of FOMC members: the role of individual career characteristics and political aspects," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 429-453, September.
    22. Böhm, Jiří & Král, Petr & Saxa, Branislav, 2012. "The Czech National Bank's monetary policy in the media," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 341-357.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; Central bank transparency; Financial market expectations; Interest rate decision; Monetary policy; Money market;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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