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Anticipation Of Monetary Policy In UK Financial Markets

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  • Peter Lildholdt
  • Anne Vila-Wetherilt

Abstract

This paper examines the question of whether the ability of market interest rates to predict future policy rate changes in the United Kingdom has changed markedly over the period 1975-2003. Such improvements in predictability could arise from greater transparency in the monetary policy process, together with greater credibility of the Bank of England. Empirical tests, using a simple term structure model, show that predictability has indeed improved over the sample period as a whole, and most markedly after the introduction of inflation targeting in 1992. But closer inspection of the data reveals that predictability did not rise smoothly over time, nor is it possible to generalise this result across maturities. Furthermore, attempts to identify structural breakpoints in a formal way were on the whole unsuccessful. Nonetheless, the paper concludes that, over the longer sample period, the data show a clear improvement in the ability of market participants to predict policy rate changes by the Bank of England.
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Suggested Citation

  • Peter Lildholdt & Anne Vila-Wetherilt, 2004. "Anticipation Of Monetary Policy In UK Financial Markets," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 20, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2004:20
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    Cited by:

    1. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-13.
    2. PKG HARISCHANDRA & George CHOULIARAKIS, 2008. "Do Exchange Rate Regimes Matter for Inflation Persistence? Theory and Evidence from the History of UK and US Inflation," EcoMod2008 23800100, EcoMod.
    3. A. Gregoriou & A. Kontonikas & R. MacDonald & A. Montagnoli, 2009. "Monetary policy shocks and stock returns: evidence from the British market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 23(4), pages 401-410, December.
    4. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "FOMC communication policy and the accuracy of Fed Funds futures," Staff Reports 491, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Rosa, Carlo & Verga, Giovanni, 2007. "On the consistency and effectiveness of central bank communication: Evidence from the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 146-175, March.
    6. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "Central bank transparency, the accuracy of professional forecasts, and interest rate volatility," Staff Reports 496, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Matthew Osborne, 2016. "Monetary policy and volatility in the sterling money market," Bank of England working papers 588, Bank of England.
    9. Michael Joyce & Jonathan Relleen & Steffen Sorensen, 2008. "Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments," Bank of England working papers 356, Bank of England.
    10. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 598-609.
    11. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency : A Survey," Discussion Paper 2007-06, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Lavan Mahadeva, 2007. "A model of market surprises," Bank of England working papers 327, Bank of England.
    13. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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