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Central Bank Transparency and Financial Market Expectations: The Case of Emerging Markets

Listed author(s):
  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    ()

    (University of Aachen)

In this paper, we study how central bank transparency influences the formation of money market expectations in emerging markets. The sample covers 25 countries for the period from January 1998 to December 2009. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias (the difference between the money market rate and the weighted expected target rate over the contract period) in money market expectations. The effect is larger for countries with no exchange rate peg and countries with low income. Second, an intermediate level of transparency is found to have the most favorable influence on money market expectations: neither complete secrecy nor complete transparency is optimal. Finally, all subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) index lead to a smaller bias in expectations, with political transparency having the largest effect.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/36-2011_neuenkirch.pdf
File Function: Second version, 2011
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Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201136.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201136
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Universitätsstraße 25, 35037 Marburg

Phone: 06421/28-1722
Fax: 06421/28-4858
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
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  1. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
  2. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov & Andrew K. Rose, 2007. "Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1163-1176, 08.
  3. Crowe, Christopher & Meade, Ellen E., 2008. "Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 763-777, December.
  4. van der Cruijsen, Carin A.B. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Hoogduin, Lex H., 2010. "Optimal central bank transparency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1482-1507, December.
  5. de Haan, Jakob & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2007. "Central bank transparency and central bank communication: Editorial introduction," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-8, March.
  6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
  7. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
  8. Pierre Gosselin & Aileen Lotz & Charles Wyplosz, 2009. "Interest Rate Signals and Central Bank Transparency," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 9-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2009. "Central Bank Transparency: Causes, Consequences and Updates," NBER Working Papers 14791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2012. "The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-72.
  11. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
  12. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Radovan Fiser & Roman Horvath, 2010. "Central bank communication and exchange rate volatility: a GARCH analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 25-31.
  14. Peter Lildholdt & Anne Vila Wetherilt, 2004. "Anticipation of monetary policy in UK financial markets," Bank of England working papers 241, Bank of England.
  15. Chortareas, Georgios & Stasavage, David & Sterne, Gabriel, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transparency, Inflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 141-155, April.
  16. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370.
  17. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
  18. Pierre Siklos, 2011. "Central bank transparency: another look," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 929-933.
  19. Otmar Issing, 2005. "Communication, transparency, accountability: monetary policy in the twenty-first century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 65-83.
  20. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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  24. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Matthew Rafferty & Marc Tomljanovich, 2002. "Central bank transparency and market efficiency: An econometric analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 150-161, June.
  26. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-13.
  27. Andersson, Magnus & Hofmann, Boris, 2009. "Gauging the effectiveness of quantitative forward guidance: evidence from three inflation targeters," Working Paper Series 1098, European Central Bank.
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