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Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?

Author

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  • Thomas Lustenberger
  • Dr. Enzo Rossi

Abstract

In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors and dispersion.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Lustenberger & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2017. "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," Working Papers 2017-12, Swiss National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2017-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank transparency; central bank communication; central bank independence; inflation targeting; forward guidance; macroeconomic forecasts; financial forecasts; panel data models with truncated data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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