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Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: An international comparison

Author

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  • Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen

    (Norges Bank)

  • Andrea Zaghini

    (Banca d’Italia)

Abstract

The paper evaluates the ability of market participants to anticipate monetary policy decisions in the euro area and in 13 other countries. First, by looking at the magnitude and the volatility of the changes in the money market rates we show that the days of policy meetings are special days for financial markets. Second, we find that the predictability of the ECB’s monetary policy is fully comparable (and sometimes slightly better) to that of the FED and the Bank of England. Finally, an econometric analysis of the ability of market participants to incorporate in the current money rates the expected changes in the key policy rate shows that in the euro area policy decisions are anticipated well in advance.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen & Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: An international comparison," Working Paper 2005/7, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2005_07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us about Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Geraats, P. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparancy Reduce Interest Rates?," Discussion Paper 2006-11, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have minutes helped to predict fed funds rate changes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 18-32.
    3. Michał Laskowski, 2016. "Instytucjonalne uwarunkowania wspólnej polityki pieniężnej w Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej / Institutional Framework of Single Monetary Policy in The Economic and Monetary Union," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 16, pages 313-331, December.
    4. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have FOMC minutes helped markets to predict FED funds rate changes?," Working Paper Series 1961, European Central Bank.
    5. repec:zbw:cfswop:wp200716 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 153-201, March.
    7. Fabio Filipozzi, 2009. "Market‐Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations and Their Evolution Since the Introduction of the Euro," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(3), pages 137-167, November.
    8. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "The art of central banks' forward guidance at the zero lower bound," MPRA Paper 57043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Silvio Colarossi & Andrea Zaghini, 2009. "Gradualism, Transparency and the Improved Operational Framework: A Look at Overnight Volatility Transmission," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 151-170, August.
    10. Philipp Hartman & Frank Smets, 2018. "The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 1-146.
    11. Canova, Fabio & Favero, Carlo A., 2005. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Lessons from Five Years of ECB and Implications for Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 5101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Marek Rozkrut, 2008. "It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication," NBP Working Papers 47, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    13. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram, 2015. "Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?," Working Paper Series 1808, European Central Bank.
    14. Rozkrut, Marek & Rybinski, Krzysztof & Sztaba, Lucyna & Szwaja, Radoslaw, 2007. "Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be "talkative"?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 176-206, March.
    15. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    16. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
    17. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    18. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 222-234.
    19. Fabio Canova & Carlo Favero, 2005. "Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from 5 years of ECB and implications for Turkey," Economics Working Papers 922, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Sébastien Kraenzlin, 2007. "The characteristics and development of the Swiss franc repurchase agreement market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(2), pages 241-261, June.
    21. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
    22. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "Does one word fit all? The asymmetric effects of central banks' communication policy," MPRA Paper 57150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Stephanos Papadamou & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2016. "Central bank transparency and exchange rate volatility effects on inflation-output volatility," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 125-133.
    24. Alexis Flageollet & Hamza Bahaji, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Based Asset Allocation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 851-870, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Predictability; Money market rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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